So, the extreme Protestant unionists and the extreme elements of the IRA appear to agree on something for a change. They both agree that last week’s peace accord — the best hope for peace in Northern Ireland for more than 30 years — should be sabotaged. They share some other things, too: a dislike of peace; a dislike of prosperity for the general population; and a love of violence and power. But, if all goes well, they now they irrelevance.
Due to the courage and intelligence of the British Prime Minister Tony Blair and his Irish counterpart, Bertie Ahern, an agreement has been worked out that will go to a referendum next month. If approved, it will pull the rug out from extremist positions. Both sides will have to accept responsibilities in a power-sharing government. The unionists will have to accept that southern Ireland will have a say, albeit a limited one, in the governance of the six northern counties that constitute Northern Ireland. The republicans will have to accept there can be no united Ireland, at least for now and in any event not until a majority in the north agree to it. Republicans south of the border will have to accept a change to their Constitution to convert the formal claim of sovereignty over the north to an aspiration for a united Ireland.
Putting the accord to a referendum has its risks. Failure could see a return to large-scale violence almost immediately. But it is a risk worth taking. If successful, the referendum result would be a clear message to that the people want peace and co-operative self-government. It will undermine any legitimacy claimed by extremists from both sides. If they say they speak for this community or that community, it will be a hollow assertion.
A further element to the accord is the 108-seat assembly to be created after a June election. It will have an executive committee with representatives from all parties. It must work out how it will work with a joint North-South Council before getting any powers itself.
It is an ingenious framework. The Protestants cannot exercise power without first acknowledging a role for the south in the affairs of the north.
There are no guarantees that anything will work in Northern Ireland because intolerance and cynicism are so high. But this accord has a lot going for it. First, a referendum takes the legitimacy out of the extremist position. Then the assembly proposal virtually forces some Protestant-Catholic and North-South co-operation. Then the political leaders have to start work on governing, on dealing with drains, roads, arts grants, education, health and the myriad of other practical things. Sure, there is plenty of room to see and Catholic or Protestant conspiracy behind every petty decision of government, but the practice of government has a chance of lessening suspicion. Future, the incorporation of the South in the government of the north might well reduce suspicions. The Protestants may view those they work with as human, rather than papists plotters. The Catholics may come to know some Protestants as people rather than mad marchers steeped in the past. With any luck religion can take a back seat to the practicalities of government.
The Ulster Unionist Party, the main pro-British Protestant grouping, has approved the deal, but some of its members expressed bitter opposition. They could easily break away. Sinn Fein, the political wing of the mainly Catholic Irish Republican Army, now is still studying the document, and is expected to make a final decision in the next two weeks.
Sinn Fein should accept the accord. The accord is not, and probably from Mr Blair and Mr Ahern’s point of view is not a permanent settlement, even if it should form the basis of Northern Ireland’s constitutional arrangements for a decade or more. As Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams put it to a rally at the weekend, the accord would “”see us through to make more significant advances towards our goal of a free and independent Ireland”.
He was silly to make the point, however obvious it is. In his attempt to persuade his people to accept the accord, with all its compromises, he runs the risk of arousing the suspicions of the unionists, who do not see the obvious.
Ultimately, this accord, with its arrangements for Protestants and Catholics to work together in the assembly and the North-South council, should break down suspicions. Ultimately, suspicion might be broken down to the extent that a substantial number of Protestants are at least neutral about a united Ireland, or see it as the lesser of two evils. When that day arrives, there can be a final settlement of hundreds of years of violence and suffering through the creation of a single Irish state.
Everything points that way. For a start, the Catholic population in the North is growing faster than the Protestant population. Of more immediate import, the South has changed dramatically in the past 20 years and has become a less unpalatable place for Protestants. Largely under the influence of the European Union, Ireland has had to be more liberal in matters like abortion and contraception. It has changed its earlier intolerant, insular ways. Also, its economy has boomed. On both sides of the border, religion is less significant in people’s lives.
Changes in attitudes on the British mainland are also drifting towards a united Ireland. The fact that the south has had such a major role in these negotiations is a pointer to that. Also the British Government and people are getting sick of the financial and security burden created by a divided Ireland. Indeed, that is the trump card and ultimate threat to the die-hard unionists — accept the accord now and buy some time, otherwise Britain will unilaterally withdraw.