Liberal MLAs Trevor Kaine and Louise Littlewood were just 46 votes apart at close of counting last night in their tussle for the last seat in Brindabella.
The seat will be decided tomorrow, and bizarrely will depend on the preferences of Labor voters.
Labor MLA Andrew Whitecross was excluded yesterday, falling several hundred votes behind Labor’s John Hargreaves after distribution of preferences from other excluded Labor candidates. Mr Whitecross got significant support from Green preferences but it was not enough.
In Ginninderra, Liberal Harold Hird is now certain to be elected and Liberal Vicki Dunne will be excluded, after distribution of other Liberal candidates’ preferences, though the ACT Electoral Commission has not formally declared it.
The position in Molonglo did not change much yesterday.
The overall position now is (an asterisk marks those formally elected):
Brindabella: Liberal: Brendan Smyth* and either Mr Kaine or Mrs Littlewood; Labor: Bill Wood* and Mr Hargreaves; and Independent Paul Osborne*.
Ginninderra: Liberal: Bill Stefaniak* and Harold Hird; Labor: Wayne Berry and Jon Stanhope; and either the Osborne Group’s Dave Rugendyke or the Greens’ Shane Rattenbury.
Molonglo: Liberal: Kate Carnell*, Gary Humphries* and Greg Cornwell (though there is still an outside chance that a different Liberal will take the third seat); Labor: two seats (most likely Ted Quinlan and Steve Garth after a lot of preference juggling, but Simon Corbell cannot be ruled out); Michael Moore and the Greens’ Kerrie Tucker.
At the close of count yesterday, Mr Kaine was on 6183 and Mrs Littlewood was on 6215. The other two left in the Brindabella count were John Hargreaves on 7140 and Bill Wood on 10,630. Mr Wood is now about 1600 surplus over the quota. Most of that surplus will go to fellow Labor candidate John Hargreaves, but some will spill to the two Liberal candidates. The question is whether Mrs Littlewood will get 46 votes more spillage than Mr Kaine, because whoever is behind then gets excluded.
When Mr Whitecross was excluded earlier Mrs Littlewood advanced 19 votes on Mr Kaine. But the spillage from Mr Wood will be over-quota surplus and will come down at a reduced value.
So it is likely the seat will be decided by between 10 and 20 votes, most likely in Mr Kaine’s favour. Incidentally, the decision was in the hands of people who initially voted Labor but went beyond marking just five Labor preferences and went on to mark preferences through, even as far as the Liberal column.
In Ginninderra, Mr Rugendyke had 5773 votes at close of counting against Mr Rattenbury’s 4171 and the Democrats’ Jocelyn Bell on 3587.
If Democrat preferences were running in the same way as a Senate election, Mr Rattenbury could be confident. But they are not. A lot of Democrat votes are exhausting. Further, the 2908 preferences of Manuel Xyrakis are yet to be distributed and they may be a tad of over-quota from the Liberals. This will happen tomorrow when, most likely, the position will be clear. At present it is too uncertain to call.