Labor and the Liberals are running neck and neck for the February 21 election, according to the latest Canberra Times-Datacol poll.
But both major parties are polling very low — in the low 20s and the undecided vote is in the mid-30s across the ACT.
The likely outcome is 6 Labor, 6 Liberals and 5 independents and minors. Of them, the Greens’ Kerrie Tucker and Independent Paul Osborne will get a seat and the other three will be divided among the Osborne candidate in Ginninderra, Michael Moore and the Democrats.
The only non-incumbent or non-party candidates to register on the opinion poll radar are Jacqui Rees in Molonglo and Alice Chu, Manuel Xyrakis and Helen Szuty in Ginninderra each with between 1 and 2 per cent. The Ginninderra three have virtually no hope because of the higher quota. Ms Rees has only a long outside chance. Past polling experience shows that independents’ vote rises and the Democrats vote falls closer to the election.
The poll shows that Kate Carnell is more popular than she has even been, with 59 per cent approving her performance, but the chief ministership will depend on how the minors and independents fall.
Two Osborne independents and Michael Moore could give her a majority of nine to eight in the 17-seat house. However, if the Greens and Democrats get three seats between them and support Labor, Wayne Berry will be Chief Minister. But Green or Democrat support for Labor is by no means guaranteed.
Mr Berry is more unpopular than any ACT Labor Leader in recent times with an approval rating of 25 per cent and a disapproval rating of 55 per cent.
Seat-by-seat, Brindabella is the most certain. It has Labor on 22, Liberals on 22 and Paul Osborne on 10 with 34 per cent undecided. The Greens and Democrats trail on 4 each. On past trends with the undecided, the seats would fall Labor 2, Liberal 2 and Osborne 1.
In Ginninderra, the Liberals on 21 and Labor on 20 could expect two seats each. The fifth seat is a fight between Osborne Independent Dave Rugendyke (5.3) the Democrats (5) and the Greens (4.3).
The fifth seat in Ginninderra might decide the election.
Molonglo is more difficult to estimate because it is a seven-seat electorate with a lower quota than the other seats so it is easier for an independent or minor candidate to win a seat.
The Liberals and Labor each have 22 per cent. This would give them two seats each, with the Liberals losing one of their present three seats.
The other three seats would go to minors and independents. The Greens’ Kerrie Tucker on 10 per cent seems assured of one; another is likely to go to a Democrat and the last would be a fight between Michael Moore, a second Green, perhaps the Osborne independent or Jacqui Rees or perhaps one the major parties getting a third seat, depending on the campaign and how the undecided vote.
The Liberal vote is down in all electorates since the 1995 election, but Labor has not picked it up, except in Brindabella.
Since the last poll in September last year, the Liberals have gained ground from Labor in all electorates. That poll was taken at the time of Labor’s leadership change from Andrew Whitecross to Mr Berry.
Since Mr Berry has taken over, Labor has lost ground in all electorates.
Since the September poll, the undecided vote has increased, perhaps some previous Labor voters are now undecided since the change of leadership.
As well as being seen negatively by voters, Mr Berry is not as well thought of as his predecessors by the very independent and minor party MLAs whom he will have to rely on if he is to be Chief Minister.
The Howard factor is not hugely influential in the ACT. Sixty-one per cent say it will have no effect on their ACT vote; 30 per cent say it will influence them against the ACT Liberals and 6 per cent for them. Cross-tabling of those results, however, indicates that the Howard factor is influential on voters who might be expected to vote Labor anyway.
The Hare-Clark system seems to be better understood with 58 per cent of voters saying they would give preferences to candidates from a mixture of parties.
On the outcome, 60 percent want a majority government with some minor party and independent representation; 28 per cent want minority government and 11 per cent want the major parties having all the seats.