The Electoral Commission cannot begin distributing preferences and over-quota surpluses until next Saturday.
This is because the commission cannot strike a quota until all the postal votes are in. The postal votes cut-off is not till midnight Friday, so the commission will not distribute until Saturday morning. That is when the next significant counting will take place.
Candidates in a doubtful position (most likely the last seat in Ginninderra and the last two in Molonglo and will just have to hold their breath till then.
The final result will not be known until Wednesday or Thursday next week.
This is because the Hare Clark system requires many distributions of preferences in each electorate.
The process starts with the determining of the quota. (One eighth of the formal vote plus one in the seat of Molonglo and one sixth of the formal vote plus one in the other to electorates of Brindabella and Ginninderra).
The candidates with a quota are identified and declared elected. But any surplus vote over the quota has to be distributed. This is done by counting the preferences of all the votes of those candidates and distributing them at a reduced value, according to how many over quota votes they have.
For example, if the quota is 8000 and a candidate gets 12000 votes, there are 4000 over-quota votes (50 per cent of a quota), so the preferences are distributed at a value of 50 per cent.
When all the preferences of all the candidates with more than a quota are distributed, the candidate with the least vote is eliminated and his or her preferences are distributed.
Candidates are successively eliminated. If anyone goes over a quota in that process, his or her over-quota is distributed before any more candidates are eliminated from the bottom.
The count can be pictured as coming from both ends. But each time a candidate is elected or eliminated all their preferences have to be counted. This is done by physically taking the ballot papers to piles for each surviving candidate on tables in the electoral office. This is why it takes so long.
Expect a final result of the 17 Assembly seats in 10 days. And even then we will not know for sure who is Chief Minister or the make up of the Government. It will be a further week or more until the Assembly meets. In that time there will be much jockeying and speculation as to whom the cross-benchers will support as Chief Minister, with deals and demands all round. And it is possible that Labor might change leader before that vote is taken, depending on the final result of the Labor seats.