A year does not have to end in a couple of zeros for it to contain more than the average number of dramatic events. It seems 1997 was such a year. None the less, the impending end of the millenium creates a psychological momentum, however illogical that may be. Indeed, there is wide disagreement about whether the new millenium begins on 1 January, 2000 or 1 January 2001. Either way, a momentum is caused. This is particularly the case in Australia which will hold the Olympic Games in 2000 and which celebrates the centenary of federation on January 1, 2001.
This feeling of momentousness will assert itself, no doubt, in 1998. In Australia and abroad, there is likely to be greater efforts to resolve matters before the new millenium.
Several issues come to mind. Reconciliation with indigenous people is likely to become more pressing as more people sense that we will be putting the nation on display to the world like never before in 2000. If things continue the way they are, the nation will be judged and found wanting. The present Government’s refusal to apologise over the stolen generations lessens us all. The expropriation of property without compensation inherent in the Government’s 10-point plan in response to the High Court’s Wik decision will tarnish Australia’s human rights record. Both add to the sense of alienation by indigenous people from the Australian community. This in turn may be a significant element in the poorer health and economic well-being of indigenous people. The past 20 years has shown that just chucking money at a problem will not necessary fix it.
The fact that Australia is on show in 2000, of course, should not be the driving reason for addressing the issue; but it may be a welcome catalyst.
A more significant issue of national identity which will be firmly on the agenda in 1998 is whether Australia should have an Australian head of state. If so, it will necessitate a change in the Constitution, once again raising the question of the position of indigenous people in the Australian nation.
It seems from last year’s election of delegates to next month’s constitutional convention that a majority of Australians and a majority in a majority of states support a republic. 1998 should see the resolution of the question of what sort of republic so it can be put to the people in a referendum. It is likely to be a momentous step symbolically. And symbols matter. Many people found it bizarre, for example, that the Queen living in Buckingham Palace in Britain had to give formal approval to the special Australian Active Service Medal for Australians who fought in Malaya, Korea and Vietnam.
Next month’s convention should highlight some of the best elements of the Australia character: vigorous debate on highly contentious political matters with a fair go for all sides and without recourse to violence.
This year will see the Government face some tough tests. It will start the year behind in the opinion polls despite gaining a very large majority in the 1996 election. It has delivered on its Telstra privatisation promise, but has otherwise been lack lustre on the economic front. Ahead lie the tests of tax reform, continuing high unemployment and fulfillment of the only-partly-fulfilled promise of workplace-relations reform.
Last year saw Prime Minister John Howard flex unnecessary muscle on the social front with euthanasia, the heroin trial and nursing home fees, yet be uncharacteristically wet on economic issues. After a decade of mouthing dry economic policy it has been wet in enacting it, preferring industry welfare and shrinking from a fight with the Senate to get more worthwhile workplace relations reform.
The fundamental problem for the Government in 1998 is that its conduct on social questions and its failings over travel rorts and ministerial conflict of interest in 1997 have sapped it of the moral authority necessary to drive its economic reforms through. In the event that the Coalition goes for a double dissolution election over Wik it may find that people who were well disposed to it in 1996 will desert it unless it uses the fresh start of a new year to reassess its priorities.
On the other side of politics, Labor received the fillip of the Kernot defection which appears to have given it more energy.
Locally, the ACT goes to the polls this year. People in the ACT will face a fairly poor choice. Chief Minister Kate Carnell has shown enormous energy and a great deal of imagination, but has a worrying tendency to construct special deals for development and to attract industry, rather than to get the basic economic and tax parameters right so developers and industry can compete on a level playing field. It was left to her deputy, Garry Humphries to unwind two special development arrangements just before the Assembly rose. Mrs Carnell and Gary Humphries aside The Liberals have suffered somewhat from a grumpy-old-men syndrome which has be destabilising.
Labor is in no better state. Its faction system, dominate by the left, has prevented quality candidates attaining leadership positions and has prevented new blood from making a mark so far this election. Its present leader, Wayne Berry, allowed the Vitab fiasco to happen when in government previously.
Most likely, independents will hold the balance of power which in this environment may be no bad thing. In all, though, it does not look like a promising year for ACT governance. One can only hope that something unexpected emerges from the election to improve governance in the ACT in 1998.