A perverse view of the Australian Bureau of Statistics proposal to abandon the monthly balance of payments figures would be “”thank heavens”. We seem to be bombarded with economic statistics over which economists and economic journalists pore like fortune tellers over tea leaves. As if the monthly figures themselves were not enough, we are inundated with what the market expectations of the figures are and whether the markets have already “”factored in” a good or bad result. Then we have the tail end of every ABC radio and television news or current affairs consumed by a battery of market indicators. Does the broad mass of the ABC audience care two hoots whether the Hang Seng index moved a point or two?
Maybe this is why the 1950s seem like a golden age to some of our politicians … when people were not oppressed with gloomy readings of economic indicators showing how badly we are doing.
There is an element of truth about this perverse view and it lends support to a more serious view … that too much reliance is made on some financial indicators, particularly monthly ones. As the Statistician, Bill McLennan, himself said, “”The trouble is if I keep publishing it, people keep believing it.”
Monthly figures are dubious because of high fluctuations and inaccuracies which frequently have to be corrected the following month. In the light of Budget cuts, the money might be better spent on other things. The current-account deficit is still a pressing economic problem, but it may be that accurate quarterly figures, which cannot be dismissed as a monthly aberration, might make us view the problem more seriously.