Faced with two evils, Russians chose Boris Yeltsin. He got 53.7 per cent of the vote in the run-off presidential election against 40.41 per cent for his communist party-nationalist opponent Gennady Zyuganov. A mere 5 per cent exercised the option of voting against both candidates, though they could be excused for doing so.
Mr Yeltsin has made a remarkable come back from single-figure popularity less than a year ago to retake the presidency in Russia’s first free election. But after the champagne of victory, Mr Yeltsin must awaken to a hangover of problems.
The first is a minor one: that his opponents challenge the legitimacy of his election. Mr Zyuganov asserts that Mr Yeltsin blatantly misused the government’s control of the media for his own advantage. There is much truth in this. A fairer media would have made much more of Mr Yeltsin’s health and his role in the war in Chechnya, tot he extent that it might have changed the result. But the charge is an ephemeral one. All outside observers report that the carriage of the voting and counting was fair.
Of more import, is the question of Mr Yeltsin’s health. Many in the west have welcomed his re-election, rightly preferring it to instability presented by Mr Zyuganov who had promised a return to the centrally planned economy with rigid controls … though that may not have been possible. But Mr Yeltsin presents instability of his own. His health is in a precarious state. He has heart and liver problems. This has resulted in an unseemly power play between the Prime Minister, Vicktor Chernomyrdin, and General Alexander Lebed, the man who came third in the first round of the presidential election two weeks ago and who joined forces with Mr Yeltsin by accepting appointment as national security chief.
Mr Lebed wants the post of vice-president revived and for him to occupy it, presumably so he can slide into Mr Yeltsin’s place if he is incapacitated. Mr Chernomyrdin will have none of this, especially because present rules state the prime minister acts as president if the president is incapacitated. The contest between the two men is bound to cause instability in the future.
Meanwhile, the war in Chechnya remains unresolved. Mr Yeltsin has lurched from toughness to conciliation depending on the political reaction required at home. Only in his absence, either overseas or in hospital, is any progress to peace made.
On the economic front, Mr Yeltsin has no large mandate to press ahead with economic reforms in the face of 30 million people who voted for the communist-nationalist coalition. But he faces a contrary push from the International Monetary Fund which is demanding he meet the conditions imposed on Russia’s $10.2 billion loan. Worse, Budget revenues are coming in at a pitiful 60 per cent of projections, while the demands on spending have been increased by silly election promises.
Politically, Mr Yeltsin faces a hostile Duma (lower house) where the communists have a majority. This will either result in arrogant presidential overriding of the Duma’s will or damaging compromises.
Internationally, he is faced with an expanding NATO and the potential of an expanding European Union. This is likely to present circumstances for humiliation which can only give his opponents further ammunition against him.
Given Mr Yeltsin’s health problems, it might be better if he started to prepare a smooth transition to someone else who could handle the situation better. After he only won the election by default.