Canberra is facing interesting times. The new Federal Government seems intent on cutting the Public Service substantially. Federal Public servants comprise about a third of Canberra’s workforce. It would be naive to imagine that the cuts will be prevented by some Sir Humphreyesque juggling as in the early years of the Fraser Government; the experience in Victoria shows what might happen.
Figures suggested have been as high as 20,000. As about a quarter of the service is in Canberra, that might mean around 5000 jobs here. Then there is a multiplier effect on the private sector that supports those public servants.
It is not a pretty picture. It means Canberrans must look at what we have got in the city and how to develop it to cushion the blow and to ensure that as many young people as possible will be able to find work here.
The ACT has very fine infrastructure and very low public debt. The ACT, at present, has the highest earnings and education levels in Australia. We have a fairly well-developed health system, despite sporadic woes at Woden Valley Hospital. We have half a dozen tertiary education institutions and a well-developed college system. All these can be used to develop substitute industries and wealth generation to replace what has been Canberra’s main industry for 80 years: the feeding, clothing, providing services and housing (at work and outside work) of federal public servants. It will continue to be a significant element, but there should and can be more.
And it is no use chanting the mantra of tourism. The woes of the Casino made public this week show how fickle that can be. Canberra has a certain amount of guaranteed national tourism generated by the major institutions. It is important to add to them with the various festivals, but it would be unwise to expect this to provide perpetual growth in wealth generation and standards of living.
We must look to provision of more health, education, environment and sporting services. We must look to information technology, defence and aerospace industries. Canberra is well-positioned to do this. The place is a joy to live in. It can attract high-quality people to engage in high-quality wealth-generating industry.
It will require some smart thinking by the ACT Government which must think of development as something more than building office blocks and medium-density housing. A good start has been made in Symonston.
One of the great advantages of Canberra should be the amount of fairly cheap land close to the sort of infrastructure and services so necessary for hi-tech industry. Industry set-up costs should be far lower than in Sydney, Hong Kong, Singapore or Melbourne, for example.
Transport is a weak spot. The road to Sydney (Lake George aside) is good, but rail and air need improving. A fast train to Sydney and international air-freight hub are not beyond possibility.
The important thing is for Canberrans not to sink into gloom and inaction, but to rise to the occasion. We can acknowledge that the federal administration must shrink, but that does not mean that Canberra should lose its significance as the national capital or that it should cease to be a prosperous model for excellent living and intelligent wealth creation.