Victorians returned Premier Jeff Kennett and his Coalition Government resoundingly at the weekend. The result can be seen in many ways: approval for all or most of Mr Kennett’s policies; approval for his government’s style; disapproval of what the Opposition has to offer; fear by the electorate of a return to the days of the Cain and Kirner Governments.
Mr Kennett, of course, would like to put greater weight on the first two. But that is not tenable, especially as he made so much of the spectre of returning to the bad days of the Guilty Party.
None the less, Mr Kennett, can claim an endorsement of his tough economic policy. In the past three and a half years the Coalition has dug Victoria out of the economic hole left by the Kirner and Cain Labor Governments. Those Governments went on ill-disciplined spending and borrowing sprees that were exacerbated by the recession. Someone had to do some drastic work to rein in government spending and to restore the revenue base. The Coalition did it. Mr Kennett was fortunate in having the help of Alan Stockdale, his Treasurer. Mr Kennett has restored government finances and restored the economic capacity of the state, though much of the later would have happened with improved economic conditions anyway.
The election also had a psychological element. Many Victorians resented the label rust-bucket state. They blamed the Cain-Kirner Governments for that. Victoria … once proud financial capital of the nation … had become a laughing stock like Queensland, without even the mitigating factor of having a good climate. To some extent the election result could be seen as an endorsement of Mr Kennett’s Victoria-on-the-move policies … things like attracting the grand prix. Some of those things have been crass, but they have been popular.
However, the election is not an endorsement of Mr Kennett’s crash-through style in parliamentary and administrative matters. It was not an endorsement of his appalling record on open processes; independence of statutory officers; review of legislation in parliament through debate and committees. This much can been seen in the very large swings, albeit in safe seats, against the two most controversial ministers in that respect … the Attorney-General, Jan Wade, and the Minister for Health, Marie Tehan.
Mr Kennett has now promised to slow down the hectic pace of change. That is a welcome sign, but if it merely means that the next Kennett government will impose sweeter policies without an ethos of consultation and compromise in the same way he imposed the castor oil of the past three and a half years, then there is little advance.
Mr Kennett is to be congratulated on the endorsement of his economic achievements, but if he thinks that means all Victorians approve his methods, he is mistaken. He deserved to win and would have won anyway, but the size of his majority can be put down to the fear of a return to Labor rather than approval for him … that much was seen in the result in traditional-Labor industrial belts like Geelong, which swung further to the Coalition.
Mr Kennett should keep up his fiscal frugality and discipline, but engage in more compromise and consultation in legislative and administrative processes.