If Terry Connolly resigns, his replacement will be determined on countback. It will without any doubt go to Labor candidate Marion Reilly.
The Hare-Clark count-back is unlike the Senate system where the party of the resigning candidate selects the replacement.
Under Hare-Clark countback the Electoral Commission goes back to the ballot papers cast at the February, 1995, election to determine who should take Connolly’s seat.
Connolly was the third candidate elected in the seat of Molonglo, after Kate Carnell (Lib) and Rosemary Follett (Lab).
No other Labor candidates were elected. Labor’s next most popular candidates were David Lamont and Marion Reilly.
The count-back is conducted by inviting all unsuccessful candidates if they want to contest the vacancy. The commissioner then takes all of the votes that were used to elect Connolly. (In this case the quota of 8430, made up of first preferences for Connolly at full value and other votes that flowed from Follett and other eliminated candidates at a discount.) In effect Connolly’s name is rubbed out from each of those ballot papers and all the numbers for the other candidates moved up one in order.
The count-back is not conducted as if there were an eight seat, awarding to the seat to the person who might have come eighth.
For example, in the countback a ballot which had Follett 1, Connolly 2, Lamont 3, Reilly 4, Moore 5 etc, would be recast as Follett 1, Lamont 2, Reilly 3, Moore 4 etc.
In this case, Mr Lamont has renounced the seat, so the numbers are moved up two. Thus our voter’s ballot paper would be redrawn Follett 1, Reilly 2, Moore 3 etc.
During the actual count last year there was very little leakage of preferences in the major-party vote. About 90 per cent of Carnell’s preferences went to Liberal candidates and 90 per cent of Follett’s preferences went to Labor candidates.
After Connolly was elected 90 per cent of his preferences went to Lamont. After Lamont was eliminated and his preferences counted about 75 per cent of the ballot expressed no further preference beyond already eliminated candidates. Of the 25 per cent which did express a further non-Labor preference, three-quarters went to Independent Michael Moore.
The count last year tells us that Labor preferences were well disciplined and that after Labor candidates they did not go anywhere else in a substantial way.
On a full count-back therefore, one could expect a Labor candidate to be elected before the Liberal (Lucinda Spier) who was the last to be eliminated at last year’s count, and that the Labor candidate to be elected will be the next available candidate on its how-to-vote card, Marion Reilly.
If Lamont renounces the chance to take Connolly’s seat this time, the electoral law provides that if another vacancy arises during the remnant of the term, he will still not be able to put his hat into the ring /again.