Not a great deal should be read into the huge swing away from the Liberal Party and to the Labor party in the Tasmanian state election at the weekend. The first question to be asked is what was the swing from? In the election of February 1, 1992, the Liberal Party did extraordinarily well and Labor did extraordinarily badly. In that election the Liberals got a huge 54 per cent. As a result they got 19 seats in Parliament and could govern as a majority government. Labor, on the other hand, got only 29 per cent and could only manage 11 seats. Five seats went to the Greens who won 13 per cent.zzz
All that has happened this election is that the support or the three major groups has been restored to the levels common from the mid-1980s to 1993.zzz
This election the Liberals lost 12 per cent of its vote, down to 42 per cent; Labor gained about 14 per cent to 43 per cent and the Greens lost 2 per cent. The result is that the Liberals have lost their majority. The most likely result is Liberals 15; Labor 15; Greens 4 and doubtful one. The doubtful seat will not change the fundamentals. No party has a majority in Tasmania.zzz
Tasmania has the Hare-Clark system, as in the ACT. It has five seven-member electorates. It means that most of the time a minor party or independent can take the seventh seat in most of the electorates. It requires only 12.5 per cent of the vote to do so, less after preferences.zzz
Labor has said it will not govern in minority; nor will it govern in coalition with the Greens. Labor leader Michael Field confirmed that after the election result became clear. The reason that he and the 34 other Labor candidates took this stand is that their last experience with the an accord with the Greens ended in electoral disaster last election at which Labor’s vote fell to 29 per cent. The accord fell apart over forestry issues and the Liberals exploited the differences, successfully calling on the electorate to ensure stable majority government. Labor suffered far more greatly from the split up than the Greens, who have managed to hold a fairly consistent 10 to 15 per cent of the vote since the mid-1980s.zzz
It appears, therefore, that the Liberals, under Ray Groom, will have to govern in minority. Mr Field has said Labor will not block supply or vote no-confidence in a minority Liberal government for at least the first seven months of the term. After that the government will be at the mercy of the Greens and Labor, who could combine to bring the government down.zzz
Mr Field is playing clever politics. Perhaps he feels that after a year or so of minority government, the government will be looking so bad in the polls that he could force an election which would return a majority Labor government. It is probably wishful thinking. Green support has remained consistent throughout the past decade. A forced election will not diminish their support; if anything it will strengthen it.zzz
Of course, the Liberal and Labor parties may gang up to force changes to the electoral system that will not suit the Greens. But the Liberal Party attempted that mid-way through the last term, by proposing that the Lower House be cut to five six-member electorates. It caused such and outcry that the attempt was abandoned.zzz
It seems that the two major parties are going to have to live with the Greens holding the balance of power most of the time. They will not like it, but that is democracy. Indeed it has been a feature of the past two decades that minor parties and independents are securing more support. They are not getting a commensurate number of seats to reflect their support in Houses which have single-member electorates, but where there is any form of proportional representation, such as in the ACT, Tasmania or in some Upper Houses, they are frequently securing the balance of power.zzz
Unfortunately, for much of the time neither the minor nor the major parties have responded to the new situation with any maturity. In particular, the Greens in the Senate have been especially unpredictable and unreliable. That said, the major parties frequently play and all-or-nothing game. It is important, in this new environment that attitudes change. It is very likely that after March 2, neither side will control the Senate, whoever forms government. The lesson from the Tasmanian election is not to fight the minors and independents or hope they will go away. The electorate does not seem likely to tire of giving minor parties and independents seats in Australian parliaments. Rather, Australian politicians will have to work out new ways of dealing with them in the interests of the electorate at large.zzz
There is often room for legislative compromise, even if governments rightly insist on financial measures being passed. It will take great skill to ensure that destructive instability does not replace destructive head-to-head politics.zzz