1996_02_february_leader22feb

And the winner of the Republican primary in New Hampshire is . . . Bill Clinton. Well, at least tentatively. In fact, is was won by Pat Buchanan the populist columnist and favourite of the Christian Right. Mr Buchanan has delivered a blow to the chances of the previous front-runner, Senate majority leader Bob Dole.

New Hampshire does not deliver many votes at the convention later in the year to select the Republican candidate, but because it is the first state popular-vote primary it carries some great advantages in money, momentum and psychological advantage.

All this is good news to Bill Clinton because while Mr Buchanan’s extremism and creationism may make him popular among the far right and in some pockets of the Republic Party, it will not endear him to the population at large.

But there is danger for Mr Clinton here. Mr Buchanan’s win might galvanise the Republican establishment to put more effort into the Dole campaign because they feel he is the best chance against Mr Clinton. This might drag out the fight and result in no candidate having a majority on the convention floor. If that happens and someone like Colin Powell is drafted to the nomination in the interests of unity, Mr Clinton’s cheer at the New Hampshire result would be misplaced. He would have to fight a popular candidate, unscarred by the primary fight, on the centre ground.

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