The new Premier of Quebec, Lucien Bouchard, wants a re-run or last year’s referendum of whether Quebec should separate from the rest of Canada. In that referendum, Quebec can within a trifling 50,000 votes (less than 1 per cent) of deciding to separate. Mr Bouchard, the new leader of the Quebec separatist party which has a majority in the Quebec provincial parliament, argues that Canada is “”two profoundly different nations who shortly must decide upon their destiny”.
He said the best solution for Quebec would be to have sovereignty and be in partnership with Canada, presumably with some sort of free-trade and defence arrangement. To some extent he is right. There will never be rest until Quebec has some sort of sovereignty that satisfies the French-speaking part of Quebec.
Quebec, of course, already has a large degree of independence as a province in the Canadian federation. There would be plenty of minority groups in nations around the world which would be quite happy with that degree of sovereignty … an elected parliament dealing with a great range of laws, separated boundaries, language rights and a flag. But that does not satisfy Quebecois for one reason … all the other provinces have them, too. The other provinces have been the stumbling block, because every time someone suggested an extra element of independence for Quebec from the central government, they demanded it too, and if it could work legally for Quebec, why not for them? They viewed the central government with equal suspicion. There was never an absolute level of separateness required by Quebec, as long as it was more separate than the other provinces. Eventually, it has come to a demand for full sovereign independence which half the people of the province desire.
The trouble is that Mr Bouchard’s call for a re-run of last year’s referendum is no longer possible. At that referendum, a significant majority thought the separatists would be well short of a majority. If the separatists had won it would have been unexpected and the defeated unionists would not have been prepared for a rear-guard action to prevent the political, economic and practical fulfilment of what the voters had expressed at the poll.
Now it is different. It means that those who do not want to live in a separated Quebec know the likelihood is that the next referendum will succeed. Before during and after any new referendum, that reality will cause them to do more than rely on the referendum campaign.
Like minorities everywhere, they will seek a different solution than one imposed by the majority. Some will vote with their feet; others … in particular the native people’s of the far north and the anglophones who live near the Ontario border … will demand to stay in Canada with the territory they live on.
Last year’s referendum added a new dimension to the separatist debate. It is not just whether Quebec should be separate, but which parts of it and what should happen to the rest.
Mr Bouchard cannot re-run last year’s referendum and just change the ending to a happy one for him without risking a change in the whole plot. However justified the claims for francophone independence, this has to be acknowledged.