The British Government’s call for elections in Northern Ireland is both premature and dangerous. Britain argues that an election is an alternative path to peace given the refusal by the IRA and the para-military loyalist groups to disarm. On the other hand the Irish nationalist side argues that an election and the reconstitution of any form of home rule would result in the return to the old domination of the Catholic minority by the Protestant majority.
History supports the view of the latter. Even if the role of the new body were limited to discussions on a new political settlement in Northern Ireland, the domination argument still holds. At present, the “”sides” in the constitutional and peace process are the British and Irish Governments and the groups representing the Catholic and Protestant side in Northern Ireland. Elections would not change the parties, but it would change their weight. Protestants would get a majority in an election, and would therefore take to themselves a mantle of legitimacy suggesting their voice was worth more. Everyone agrees on who should be around the table; there is no need for an election. All an election can do is engender mistrust and inflame differences.
The best thing for the people in Northern Ireland at present if for no-one to make any sudden moves. Lots of talk, lots of shuffling about and lots of waffle for quite long time will give Northern Ireland the best chance for peace. The longer the truce goes on, the more people in Northern Ireland will value peace and learn to understand each other. It will also allow for the gradual dissolution of the war industry that had built up in the 25 years to 1994.
Of greater importance, it will allow for greater developments in the European Community. With Britian and Ireland both members of the EC, the general EC movement to uniform currency and commercial law and the requirements for freedom of movement of people will make the Northern Ireland-Irish border less relevant. As will the recent referndum of divorce in Ireland because it lessens the force of the claim by Protestants than Ireland is a papist state.
It has nothelped matters that then Irish Foreign Minister Dick Spring has accused Britain of deliberately trying to cause splits within the Dublin Government and of playing a divide-and-rule tactic _ charges Britain denied. Indeed, it should be obvious that many in Britain and the British would dearly love not to rule in Northern Ireland. But it has to deal with the wishes of the Protestant majority in Northern Ireland.
That is the democratic conundrum of Ireland. What is the unit of democracy? The whole island, or the artificially contructed parts of it.
Ultimately the task for Britain and Ireland is to create an environment in which enough of the Protestants in the north see that a union with the south (perhaps with some sort of local autonomy) would not be such an impossible thing _ and would certainly be a better thing than a return to the pre-1994 violence.
That will take time and patience. Sudden calls for elections will not help. Nor will rash accusations about divide-and-rule tactics.