Rosemary Follett no longer has the numbers to keep her leadership of the Opposition, according to informed Opposition sources.
However, an immediate challenge is not on the cards. A change is more likely later in the term.
It now seems that Opposition attorney-general spokesman Terry Connolly would support Andrew Whitecross being leader with him (Mr Connolly) as deputy. Mr Connolly would most likely bring with him the support of Bill Wood and Mr Whitecross would bring the support of Roberta McRae, giving a majority of four for the new team, against two, Ms Follett and her Deputy Wayne Berry, for the status quo.
Oddly enough, the numbers change was precipitated by vacancy in the position of Master of the ACT Supreme Court, a job that would suit Mr Connolly, as it could lead to a judgeship and exercise his legal skills in a more fulfilling way than at present.
The Liberal Government would be happy to offer it to him to sew disarray in the Opposition and to take away one of its best performers. However, under the Hare-Clark system it would mean that Labor’s David Lamont would get the seat on countback. Mr Lamont was Deputy Chief Minister until he failed to get a quota at the last election. If Mr Lamont might be worse off because he could give more fire to the Opposition.
But Mr Lamont has made it very clear he never wants to return to the Assembly, making the offer to Mr Connolly that much more tempting for the Liberals as he would be replaced most like (under Hare Clark countback) by the relatively unknown Marion Reilly.
Further, the Liberals cannot give the Master’s job to a top contender from the profession, Richard Refshauge, without it being seen as a reward for successfully representing Tony De Domenico in his sexual harassment case … unfair as that may be.
In any event Mr Connolly would be open for other judicial vacancy that might arise here or elsewhere in Australia.
With that possibility on the horizon key ACT Labor figures have been looking at what can be done to bolster the party’s position in the ACT.
Mr Whitecross has been seen as a solid, intelligent performer since entering the Assembly at the last election, but perhaps lacking some of the television skills needed for leadership. Of more importance, in the short time he has been MLA, he has earned the respect of key colleagues as leadership material.
In some respects, Labor’s position since the election has resembled that of the Liberals after the 1992 election, with the defeated leader holding on to the job without full support. In the Liberals’ case the catalyst for change was when Gary Humphries agreed to forsake the deputy’s position to get Mr De Domenico to join him in moving support from Trevor Kaine to Kate Carnell in the interests of electoral success.