Northern Ireland moved closer to a state of permanent peace last week. The catalyst was the visit of US President Bill Clinton. It was not that Mr Clinton himself did anything. Rather the thought of him just being there was enough to garner the British and Irish Prime Ministers to move the peace process one step … any step … further. The exact nature of the step was of much less importance than the fact it was taken. It means that the peace-seekers have obtained a little more of the most precious element in achieving lasting peace in Northern Ireland … time.
After 25 years of bloodshed, it is a difficult task to change a society from a state of virtual war. In that time enormous suspicion, fear and hatred can build up. The underlying causes of the violence … economic discrimination against minority Catholics, especially in low socio-economic groups … remains as a significant fear even if less as a reality. Further, in the 25 years of violence, many people have a vested interest in the status quo. Some make their living from the abnormally violent society, whether they are glaziers, counsellors, funeral directors or weapons brokers or power-brokers in the para-military organisations on both sides. There are many with a keen interest in continued violence; whereas those who dearly want peace are sceptical or at best luke-warm in support of the various proposals put forward to achieve it.
This is why time is so important in the Northern Ireland equation. The surreal argument over whether the IRA must decommission its weapons before its political wing, the Sinn Fein is permitted at the negotiating table is of far less importance than the buying of time. Every week of peace … even if fragile or created by stand-off … that goes by in Northern Ireland weakens the hand of those that profit by violence and strengthens the position of the peace-seekers. Northern Ireland has now had 15 months of peace. That time has reinforced the belief (at one time naive but now real) that permanent peace is possible and achievable. That time has meant there will be less tolerance for those who would threaten it.
The latest proposals are, of course, cumbersome and puzzling. The two Prime Ministers … in the face of the embarrassment of allowing the US President to land amid a stalemate or a void … have agreed upon a two tracked process. On one track a US Senator will head an international commission to advise on ways of disarming the rival groups. On the other track, the political wings will aim towards all-party talks on the province’s future by February 1996.
The minutiae, however, are less relevant than the fact that at least for several more months violence is most likely to be put aside.
The long-term settlement will have to be political. Clearly total union with Britain with the political representation of the people Northern Ireland being expressed only at Westminster is not tenable. Some form of power-sharing and local representation will be necessary.
In the more distant future total union with the Irish Republic may be the ultimate solution. That will be more likely as the Republic integrates more with Europe and changes some of its constitutional and legal dogma in a way that makes union more palatable to Protestants in the north. He vote on divorce was one step towards this.