Parliament sits next week after the long winter break. Federal MPs have been out of Canberra in their electorates and elsewhere for seven weeks. Talking to the “real” Australia as they like to portray it. Labor MPs will come back to a caucus meeting on Monday and backbenchers are expected to relay to the leadership some of their electors feelings and concerns. It is likely they will portray concerns about the electorate’s dislike of Paul Keating, especially the feeling that he is aloof from the concerns of ordinary Australians. Mr Keating does not have long to correct that; the next election is only six months or so away. Essentially, he has the parliamentary session up to Christmas to turn around the perception that his Government has not delivered on the economic recovery and that he is not alert to the economic concerns of ordinary Australians.
The most recent opinion polls suggest that Labor can by no means be written off. After lagging the coalition for months, Labor has bounced back to level pegging. Mr Keating, too, has bounced back to be level with John Howard as preferred prime minister.
Some of the opinion poll change could be put down to statistical error, but it shows a volatility in the electorate. It may be, though, that Labor’s rise and the Opposition’s fall can be put down more to failings on the Opposition side, notably in Western Australia, rather than anything positive the Government has done. And that after the Opposition deals with Western Australia or it fades from memory the long-term trend will return _ one that suggests people have made up their mind to vote against Mr Keating.
It seems very likely that personalities and perceptions will prove more important in the next six months than policies and substance. On the Government side, Mr Keating appears to be coming over as a leader blaming the stupid public for not understanding the marvellous quality of the economic recovery that his Government has created. Understandably voters resent it. They resent him saying “What are you on about?” when they understandably question how solid the recovery is in the face of high real interest rates, little progress with unemployment, worsening current account figures, poor wages growth and government budgetary chicanery that makes an ill-disciplined deficit appear on the books as a surplus after some of the silver has been sold off.
Mr Keating has reason to be frustrated at not getting credit for some of his substantial achievements: native title, a long-term national superannuation plan and linkage with Asia. But it is inevitable these things will get over-shadowed by more immediately pressing concerns.
Mr Keating has very little time to re-engage. He must return to Question Time every day. He must stop staged media games with favorites like John Laws; they are no longer working. He must have some general media conferences and be answerable. He must show concern and a willingness to listen.
Mr Keating’s two great strengths are a willingness to confront long-term questions of national importance and to attack opponents mercilessly exploiting real or imagined weaknesses. However, he is not very good at dealing with present and medium-term detail. At present _ with John Howard holding his nerve (albeit with some weakness in his handling of the Crichton-Browne faction) _ Mr Keating’s weaknesses appear to be more telling than his strengths. He does not have long to turn that around.