Senator Bob Mc Mullan’s proposed move to the House of Representatives is a welcome one. It shows that, since the March by-election, the Labor Party has recognised that the ACT cannot be taken for granted.
Hitherto, Labor had won every election and by-election for all ACT seats since their creation bar three (in 1949 when the first ACT seat was created and won by an Independent, and for the seat of Canberra in the extraordinarily anti-Labor elections of 1975 and 1977.)
At the March by-election in the seat of Canberra Labor was severely shaken by a 17 per cent swing. It lost one of its safest seats. The loss could be put down to several factors: general by-election trends against governments; fear of interest rate rises in a mortgage-belt seat; an anti-Paul Keating sentiment; and a general feeling of a tired government. However, another factor stood out above these _ the selection by Labor of a person, Sue Robinson, who was seen _ rightly or wrongly _ as a far-left candidate more interested in factionalism in the party than in the people she was to represent. The Liberal Party, on the other hand, in Brendan Smyth, chose someone quintessentially of the Tuggeranong mortgage belt.
It is difficult to quantify precisely which factors cause people to change their vote or what percentage of the vote is personal to the candidate rather than purely party. It is questionable whether Bob Mc Mullan could have won the seat if he had stood at the by-election.
A general election, however, is vastly different. At by-elections voters can punish a government without feat of tipping it out. The focus is on government performance; not on Opposition credibility. Seventeen per cent swings in individual seats are unheard of in general elections; indeed swings of 10 per cent in individual seats are very rare.
The general election will also be different because the ACT seats have be redistributed with the creation of a third seat. The old Canberra in effect becomes Tuggeranong-based with the new name of Namadgi. The seat of Fraser remains Belconnen-based. And the new Canberra is carved out of the middle. It is this seat that Senator Mc Mullan will contest.
The Mc Mullan candidacy is very different from the Robinson candidacy. For a start he does not belong to any faction. He will not be seen as a party loyalist being rewarded with a safe seat. To the contrary he is coming from a certain seat in the Senate (Labor and the coalition have each won one of the ACT and Northern Territory seats from the day they were created) to a less certain one.
Senator Mc Mullan’s move to the Lower House is not tainted with the blatant ambition of Gareth Evans who appears to be making the move with half an eye to the prime ministership, though Senator Mc Mullan has made it clear he would form part of the queue for the Treasurer’s job if it came up _ a job he could not do in the Senate.
Further, Senator Mc Mullan’s candidacy comes with the seriousness and authority of a Ministry and without the unseemly factional brawling that took place with Senator Evans’s move and is taking place with the vacancy in the safe seat vacated by Brian Howe.
That said, Senator Mc Mullan _ Minister or not _ must recognize that the electors of Canberra are entitled to detailed attention to local matters that are dealt with in the federal sphere in a way that he did not in the Senate. John Lang more is a good example. Further, Senator McMullan should not take a win in the seat for granted.