Despite the hype of the March Federal by-election, Labor has to be favoured to win all three ACT seats.It is not only because of Bob McMullan’s announcement this week. There are other factors.Let’s take the Liberals’ candidate for Namadgi, Brendan Smyth.
The trouble for Brendan Smyth is that he was pre-selected by the Liberal Party for the by-election because he was very electable.
The Liberals did a lot of profile polling _ finding out what sort of person the good voters of Tuggeranong would elect. Someone like us, they replied. Between 30 and 40, married with kids, a PAYE taxpayer and living in Tuggeranong.
The Liberals duly got the very electable but quintessentially ordinary Tuggeranongite Brendan Smyth. But precisely because he is so ordinary and electable, he is not (italic) re-electable (end italic). People have seen how ordinary he is. A typical Tuggeranongite does not necessarily make a good re-electable Member of Parliament.
The by-election was in the seat of Canberra. But since the redistribution which created a third ACT seat, Tuggeranong is now in the newly named seat of Namadgi.
The seat of Fraser remains Belconnen-based and the new seat of Canberra is carved out of the middle. Looking at the other seats, Bob McMullan is not risking much.
Despite the success of Kate Carnell, the detestation of Paul Keating and the fear of public-sector bashing and high interest rates, Labor should still win them because of a very favourable redistribution.
The redistribution has evened the seats out. All three are now safe Labor (on pre-by-election figures). The pre-selection could have created two very safe seats and one less safe.
Before the redistribution there was one very safe seat (Fraser held by John Langmore with a 12.8 per cent margin) and one less safe seat (Canberra held by Ros Kelly with a 9.6 per cent margin). Now the three seats are more even, according to an approximate nominal redistribution suburb-by-suburb of votes cast at the last election.
Old Fraser is now fractionally less safe for Labor (by 0.5 per cent). Old Canberra (now Namadgi) is fractionally more safe for Labor (by 1.9 per cent). The new seat, new Canberra, is nominally a safe Labor seat with a margin of 11.2 per cent.
Thus the redistribution puts the seats’ safety margins at Fraser 12.2, Namadgi 11.5 and Canberra 11.2. (Other commentators have slightly margins, but the theme is the same.)
It is usual to use the last general election’s figures in making comparisons because by-elections tend to throw up aberrant voting.
Namadgi is harder to win for Brendan Smyth at the general election than Canberra was at the by-election. And there are no advantages of incumbency. Indeed, there are some disadvantages, as we have seen.
Moreover, his opponent is likely to be Annette Ellis who presents a far more acceptable prospect than Sue Robinson who was seen _ rightly or wrongly _ as been rewarded for factional loyalty.
In Fraser, John Langmore is unlikely to be troubled. Earlier, Langmore nervously (but in light of the by-election perhaps wisely) retreated from an earlier view that he would seek pre-selection for the less safe central seat.
He was being unduly alarmist. In a general election it is extremely rare for a swing in an individual seat greater than 10 per cent. A 10 per cent swing across the nation, for example, would result in Labor 35 seats and the Coalition 112 seats. A 10 per cent swing to Labor would result in Labor 121 seats and the Coalition 26. These are more extreme than the record majority of the Coalition in 1975.
In 1975 when every seat swung away from Labor (on the election-night report I have), there were only two seats where the swing was higher than 10 per cent and the seat changed hands. There were a couple of swings higher than 10 per cent but the seat did not change hands.
Admittedly, in 1975 Bass, having swung 14 per cent in the earlier by-election, swung a further 3 per cent at the general election. But this seemingly similar situation to Smyth’s seat has a distinct difference. Bass was fought on the same boundaries. Smyth’s seat has changed to the worse for him because some Liberal areas like Forrest and Red Hill have been excised. Moreover 1975 was very unusual. Keating and Labor may be looking bad in the polls, but it is not like 1975.
Out of the by-election environment and with sensible candidates, there is no reason for an extraordinary result in any of the ACT seats. Expect all of them to go to Labor.