Many are called to the deputy leadership, but few are chosen.On the post-war record Kim Beazley has about one chance in five of becoming Prime Minister and about one chance in three of becoming Leader of the Opposition without being Prime Minister.
The deputy leadership of one of the two major political parties in Australia is not part of a natural progression to the Prime Ministership.
Since 1945 only three deputies went smoothly to party leader and at the time or later election to the Prime Ministership. And all held the Prime Ministership only a short time. They were Harold Holt, Billy McMahon and Gough Whitlam.
The job has been a parking spot for the factionally troublesome, a grooming spot for the plodding successor, a gong for the long-serving, and a place for overtly ambitious.
Both Bob Menzies and Paul Keating resigned from the deputy leadership, but got the prime ministership within months.
Of the eight Prime Ministers since the war (ignoring the few days Artie Fadden and Jack McEwen were caretaker PM), only Malcolm Fraser and Bob Hawke were never deputy. John Gorton was deputy for a few months in 1971 after standing down as Prime Minister. Hayden was never deputy, became leader but not Prime Minister.
Bert Evatt, Arthur Calwell, Billy Snedden, Andrew Peacock and John Howard went from the deputy to lead their party but never became (or have not become) Prime Minister.
That leaves the many called but not chosen to lead their party. On the Labor side they were: Frank Forde (who lost leadership ballots to Curtin in 1935 and Chifley in 1946), Barnard (1967 to 1974, when he went to Scandanavia as ambassador leading to the famous Bass by-election), Cairns (1974 to July 1975, when he was dismissed as Treasurer by Gough Whitlam), Frank Crean (Simon’s father who lasted a few months until the dismissal election), Tom Uren (1976-1977), Lionel Bowen (1977-1990) and Brian Howe (1990 until yesterday).
On the Liberal side they were: Eric Harrison (1944-56), Phil Lynch (1972-1983), Neil Brown (1985-1987), Fred Chaney (1989-1990), Peter Reith (1990-93), Michael Wooldridge (1993-94), Peter Costello (1994 – )
That is 25 deputies since the war, five of whom subsequently (subs leave in word SUBSEQUENTLY) became PM and a further five who led their party without becoming PM (though Howard and Costello are still in with a chance).
Until the early 1970s, Australian political leadership was fairly stable. The Liberals had only three deputies in the 27 years to 1971 and Labor had only four deputies in the 28 years to 1974.
Changes in the deputy leadership went with instability in the leadership. The Liberals had the Gorton-McMahon, Fraser-Snedden and Howard-Peacock rifts and Labor had the Whitlam-Cairns, Hayden-Hawke and Hawke-Keating rifts. These resulted in a faster turn-over of deputies. The Liberals have had seven deputies in the 12 years since the 1983 election. Labor had three deputies in three years to 1977.
The more stabilising, long-serving deputies seem to be older and without ambition for the top job. They also seem to get more done quietly behind the scenes or as trouble spotters in the Cabinet. Bowen as Attorney-General (seven years as deputy) and Barnard in Defence (seven years as deputy) are good examples. Howe is to a lesser extent. Those with the eye for the top job (even those groomed by the leader for it) tend to destabilise the leadership: Cairns, Keating, Howard and Peacock are examples.
History indicates that the model of having a deputy leadership position as a natural stepping stone for an orderly succession is the exception rather than the rule. When it has happened the resulting prime ministerhip has been short, unstable or electorally unpopular or all three.