The question of who will form the next ACT Government will be determined on the floor of the ACT Legislative Assembly when it next meets _ next month. And that question will largely between determined by how the preferences fall in Saturday’s election. It now appears likely that the count will be quicker than expected. It appears probable that the Liberals have seven seats, Labor six, Greens two and one each for Michael Moore and Paul Osborne. On that scenario, if the Greens and Moore supported Labor Rosemary Follett would be Chief Minister. Osborne is any event is likely to support the Liberals so the Liberals would need Moore as well to get the Chief Ministership.
A Moore abstention would result in deadlock if the Greens went with Labor. On the other hand, if the Greens abstained because Labor did not deliver enough, the Chief Ministership would go to Kate Carnell irrespective of what Moore did. The Federal ACT Self-Government Act provides that at the first meeting of the Assembly after an election the Assembly shall first select a Speaker and then _ before any other business _ elect a Chief Minister. After the election of a Chief Minister the Chief Minister then appoints three other Ministers. To be elected Chief Minister an MLA needs a bare majority of those voting. That would usually mean nine of the 17, but might mean less if there are abstentions. There is a possibility of a deadlock if a combination of independents or Greens vote, say, with Labor against Kate Carnell and then with the Liberals against Rosemary Follett.
In this case the Assembly would be “”incapable of effectively performing its functions” and under the Act the Federal Minister for Territories would advise the Governor-General to call a new election. This possibility, of course, would weigh heavily on independents and Greens to ensure one or other of the leaders of the major parties is elected Chief Minister. As to the final make-up of the Assembly, it is clear that Labor has two seats in each electorate and the Liberals two in Brindabella and Ginninderra and three in Molonglo. The Greens have one in Molonglo. That leaves one seat in each electorate doubtful. The likelihood is Moore in Molonglo; Green in Ginninderra and Osborne in Brindabella. This would make the Assembly Liberal 7, Labor 6, Green 2, Moore 1, Osborne 1. Let’s look at the preferences and the doubtful seat in each electorate more closely. Preferences: There are two sorts of preferences under Hare-Clark. One is the traditional sort that come from excluded candidates at the bottom of the list. These preferences are transferred at full value.
The other is from the transfer of preferences from candidates who get more than a quota. These are transferred at a discount to take account of the fact that a large chunk of the primary vote has gone to elect the candidate. In this election only two candidates got more than a quota: Kate Carnell (2.3 quotas) and Rosemary Follett (1.7 quotas). The transfer of the excess is not done by just plucking out the over quota randomly. Rather all the preferences are counted and discounted according to the following formula: the number of votes minus the quota divided by the number of votes. The quota is one eighth of the formal vote in Molonglo and one sixth in the other seats. At close of counting the quota in Molonglo was 7432. It means Carnell’s preferences will be distributed at a discount of 0.57 and Follett’s will be distributed at a discount of 0.42. So for every 100 Follett preferences directed to Connolly, Connolly will receive 42 votes. (The other 58 being deemed to have been used up electing Follett.)
Ginninderra: Labor’s Wayne Berry does not have a quota on his own, even though Labor in total has 1.97 quotas. This means Berry’s preferences do not get distributed at all no matter how many counts and excluded candidates there are. Berry’s ballots will stay next to his name until the preferences of an excluded candidate (or candidates) put him over the line. Presumably a Green or Helen Szuty will get excluded and give him those votes. And if there is any surplus after excluded candidates put him over the line, only the preferences of those excluded candidates are distributed down the ballot paper. Berry’s preferences do not get counted. This is also true of all the other Labor and Liberal candidates. It means we will get a faster count than previous thought. For Roberta McRae (on 0.36 quotas) to get elected she will need all of the preferences of the other Labor candidates (aside from Berry) and a tad more from other candidates.
This is very likely because the other Labor candidates and her vote add up to a quota. The Greens will get Democrat preferences, putting them on 0.84. There are virtually no Labor votes over two quotas to flow through to Szuty, so Szuty will need all the Liberal over quota to save her. The Liberals have 2.44, so there is 0.44 quota going. It is not beyond possibility but improbable. I think the Green will win in Ginninderra. Brindabella is very tight. Osborne has the highest vote for the last seat (0.67), but he is not a certainty. The Liberals have 2.23 quotas, giving them 0.23 over quota. Labor has 1.9 quotas (say 2 and no over-quota). The Greens have 0.47, Democrats 0.23 and Moore Independents 0.23. It is going to depend on the order of exclusion. It is remotely possible that because the Liberals are so evenly spaced, they may stay in the race and even get a third seat.
Otherwise their over-quota will go to Osborne and he will tough it out with the Greens. My odds would favour Osborne, then the Green then the Liberal. In Molonglo the last seat is between Michael Moore and Labor’s David Lamont. I would exclude the chance of the Liberals 0.43 over quota translating into a fourth seat because a lot of that it personal Carnell vote which will not spill through. Indeed, Lamont may get some of it, but not enough to save him. I would give it to Moore. In summary: Liberal 7, Labor 6, Greens 2, Moore 1, Osborne 1. The Greens are looking more solid than Moore and Osborne. If Osborne loses it will be to a third Green or an eighth Liberal. If Moore loses it will be to Labor. We will not have any clearer picture until next Saturday.