The Liberal Party has moved to be neck and neck with Labor in the latest Canberra-Times Datacol poll on Saturday’s election, picking up women voters who previously had been undecided. The poll puts the Liberals on 26 and Labor on 24, however, there is still a very large slice of undecided voters, 32 per cent, and in the last election Labor picked up a disproportionate lion’s share of these voters. Slightly more voters, 38 per cent, would prefer Kate Carnell as Chief Minister than Rosemary Follett, on 36 per cent and slightly more approve of the way Mrs Carnell is doing her job than the way Rosemary Follett is doing hers. On this poll, the most likely result is still a minority Government, presumably Labor, supported by Moore Independents and Greens. Though the Greens have said that if they hold the balance they will bargain with both sides to extract concessions to fit their platform (see report page X).
The poll was conducted from last Thursday until Tuesday. The previous poll was conducted the week before that. In that time, campaigning has stepped up. The poll shows that during the week Labor dropped 2 per cent and the Liberals rose 4 per cent. Undecided is at 32 per cent, down four from the previous poll. The Chief Minister, Rosemary Follett, said, “”There is only one real poll; it’s on Saturday.” The Moore Independents, Democrats and the Greens are up a percentage point each, but none has a quota. None the less it is likely a non-major party candidate will pick up a seat in each electorate. Moore Independent Helen Szuty, on 6, is leading the minors in Ginninderra, independent Paul Osborne, on 6, in Brindabella and the Greens, on 9, in Molonglo.
Minors could get two seats in Molonglo with Michael Moore, on 5, retaining his seat. Mr Osborne has the drawback that the Greens and Democrats have a preference deal. But much depends on the undecided. Also, personalities are very important in the Hare-Clark system. This will certainly help Labor in Molonglo where it is fielding its three leading Ministers. A further complicating factor is that 57 per cent of respondents say they will do a cross-party vote, that is vote for candidates from a mixture of parties and independents. That would tend to favour sitting or well-known candidates. More voters, 50 per cent, approve of the way Opposition Leader Kate Carnell is doing her job than approve of the way Rosemary Follett is doing her job at 46 per cent.
On the general picture, the Liberal campaign manager, Lynton Crosby, said, “”Regrettably, our party polling does not accord with this poll.” However, his polling did agree with the high percentage of undecided. A high level of undecided in the weeks before the election has been a feature of the past two elections, but this is higher at this time than in the past. It seems to indicate a high level of ignorance and apathy about ACT governance, which is odd given that the Assembly combines both state and local government powers and therefore influences people lives more than state parliaments elsewhere.
In the previous poll a concurrent question was asked on the Federal by-election caused by Ros Kelly’s resignation and it recorded 10 per cent fewer undecided than the ACT poll _ using the same respondents. The Datacol poll indicates that the increase in Liberal support is due to women switching and a higher retention rate of 1992 voters. Of those polled 44 per cent who said they voted Labor in 1992 would vote Labor again; whereas 73 per cent of Liberal voters would vote Liberal again. In the earlier poll on 18 per cent of women said they would vote Liberal. This has surged to 27 per cent in the latest poll. Whereas Labor lost 4 per cent. Electorate by electorate, the Liberals are ahead in Brindabella and Molonglo and behind in Ginninderra.
Independent Michael Moore said it now appeared likely the Assembly would contain both Green and Moore Independent MLAs. Despite the qualifications: a high undecided vote; the difficulty of polling with a question about parties when voters get the option to vote for individuals; and the Hare-Clark uncertainties, the poll makes it clear that the Liberals have come out of the campaign better and that the Greens have gained significant support from virtually nothing last election and appear to be holding it. At the moment, though, people appear to be late focusing on the election. There will a lot of last-minute decision-making. Tomorrow _ the issues and an eight-page election guide.