The ACT is headed for another minority government, according to the latest Canberra Times-Datacol poll. The main points to come from the poll are as follows: A surge in support for the Greens who could get the balance of power. Minority government is almost inevitable. Labor is slightly ahead of the Liberals. There is enough support for minor parties and independents to secure three or four seats. The re-entry of the Democrats from nowhere to being a minor force. Rosemary Follett is slightly preferred as Chief Minister over Kate Carnell. There is a huge undecided vote _ much higher than at the same time last election. The possibility that Raiders star Paul Osborne will get a seat in Brindabella. Sitting MLAs Greg Cornwell (Liberal) and Ellnor Grassby (Labor) are at very high risk and sitting Independents MLAs Michael Moore and Helen Szuty are at moderate risk. However, the very high undecided vote makes all of these conclusions subject to change. A further complicating factor is that more than half those polled say they will cross-vote _ that is, not restrict their first five (or seven in Molonglo) preferences to one party. This is perhaps comforting for sitting members because it indicates voting for personalities rather than parties and this usually favours sitting candidates.
Under the Hare-Clark voting system, five candidates elected in each of Tuggeranong-based Brindabella and Belconnen-based Ginninderra. In these electorates 16.6 per cent of the first-preference vote is a quota to guarantee a seat. Central-based Molonglo has and seven seats and quota of 12.5 per cent. Tasmanian and Senate experience suggests that the last seat in each electorate is often secured by a candidate with more than half a quota of first preference votes. The poll shows that 39 per cent prefer Ms Follett as Chief Minister and 36 per cent prefer Ms Carnell. Carnell support increases with over 55, private sector and males. Follett support increases with 35-54, public sector and females. The 18-34s give equal support. On voting intentions Labor (26 per cent) is ahead of the Liberal Party (22 per cent). They are followed by the Greens (5 per cent), Moore Independents (4); Democrats (3); others 3.
The table shows the break up seat by seat. Bearing in mind the Democrats and Greens have done a preference deal and have similar outlook to the Moore independents, voters voting for one of them might be expected to give preferences to the others before going on to the major parties. If that is the case, a Green, Democrat or Moore Independent can be expected to pick up a seat in each electorate, and possibly two in Molonglo. It is possible that Paul Osborne might also get a seat in Brindabella. In summary, minors and independents will take a minimum of three and a maximum of five seat. Given the evenness of the major parties, that almost certainly means minority government. Labor should pick up two in each electorate and probably a third in Molonglo. This would mean Ellnor Grassby (Ginninderra) would miss out. The Liberals should get two in Ginninderra and Molonglo which means Greg Cornwell (Molonglo) might miss out and one for sure and possibly two in Brindabella which means either Trevor Kaine or Tony De Domenico might miss out.
It appears there has been a leakage from the Liberals to Paul Osborne in Brindabella and a leakage from the Labor stronghold in Molonglo to the Green-Democrat-Moore vote. Several factors should be borne in mind, though. The Labor Party organises well on the day and picks up. Michael Moore is also known for a late run. The Green factor is uncertain. They appear to have picked up with the high national profile due to the logging debate. However, their ACT policies have not have the attention that the Moore Independents have had, let alone the scrutiny that the majors have had. Mrs Carnell is preferred by 40 (to Ms Follett’s 36) of minor-party voters. This may have some slight influence on preferences.
The poll shows clearly a level of dissatisfaction with the major parties and a high level of uncertainty. Only 13 per cent of voters would like to see an Assembly with only major-party MLAs. Sixty-five would like to see some minors but with majority government. Only 27 per cent want to see a minority government _ which at present is the most likely result. The Liberal vote, though lower than Labor’s appears more loyal. When asked about their 1992 vote, the poll revealed that only 1 per cent of Liberals will swap to Labor, compared to 9 per cent the other way. Of those who voted Labor last time 31 per cent are now undecided; only 11 per centof Liberals are now undecided.
Given the state of the parties and the fractured nature of the minor-party vote, it is likely that the final seat or two in each electorate will be determined by preferences after many counts. It will mean that if voters only vote for the valid-vote minimum of five or seven candidates, their ballots will be exhausted before all the seats are determined. In Hare-Clark it is important to mark a sequential preference for every candidate to be assured of having a say in determining the last seat. This is because of the counting method. After a candidate is elected, the over-quota surplus is distributed by counting all the preferences and transferring them at a reduced transfer value. The transfer value is determined as follows: the number of votes for the elected candidate minus the quota divided by the number of votes for the candidate which show a further preference. It means every preference counts because no candidate is likely to get precisely one quota. Tomorrow: the issues and how individuals rate. Point to tables.