Reading the tea leaves of the Fraser by-election. By CRISPIN HULL Some time in the past few weeks, the Member for Fraser, John Langmore, licked the tip of his forefinger held it up and turned it slowly around to guage the direction of the political wind.
Yesterday he announced that he would renominate for Fraser, abandoning an earlier expressed preference to move to Canberra _ the new central seat to be created at the next redistribution.
Mr Langmore’s announcement appears to be based more upon the flow-on from the resignation of Ros Kelly from the existing Tuggeranong-and-Woden based seat of Canberra than the poor showing of Labor in Saturday’s ACT Legislative Assembly election. Under existing boundaries, the ACT has two federal seats: Fraser in the north and Canberra in the south. These boundaries will apply at the March 25 by-election. However, there has been a redistribution to apply from the next general election under which the ACT gets three seats: Fraser in the north, Canberra in the centre and Namadgi in the south. In effect, the new name “”Namadgi” would be applied to the old Canberra seat and the new seat created in the centre from bits of the old two electorates would get the name “”Canberra” _ the seat Mr Langmore had earlier expressed a preference for.
The pre-selection to fill the place for Mrs Kelly, of Labor’s right faction, went to the left’s Sue Robinson. That upset the applecart. It had earlier been expected that the right would retain the seat and at pre-selection for the general election would continue in the newly named Namadgi; that Mr Langmore, also from the left, would take Canberra; and a new candidate from the Left would take Fraser. With the factional uncertainty generated by Ms Robinson’s preselection and the possibility that she might not win the seat and might then seek preselection for the new Canberra, Mr Langmore has decided to stay put and abandon any more to Canberra. He said yesterday that he had made up his mind before Saturday’s election. He said the persuasive factors were: Mrs Kelly’s resignation; the fact he lived in what would be the new Fraser; and there would be a continuity in staying in the electorate of the same name (named after Jim Fraser whom Mr Langmore described as an excellent local Member for the ACT). “”Against that would be the loss of many great supporters in the central area,” he said. “”And I have a great affection for the central planned part of the city. This is what made me indicate a preference for the central seat earlier.” At present Fraser has a 13.5 per cent margin and is one of the safest Labor seats in the country.
Canberra is on 9.6. A booth-by-booth breakdown indicates that after the redistribution the three new seats will have fairly even safety margins of 12.2 for Fraser, 11.5 for Namadgi and 11.2 per cent for Canberra _ hardly enough difference to base a seat-swap on _ though the foolishly heroic gesture by Labor’s Kep Enderby to opt for the less safe seat of Canberra after the 1974 redistribution created a second ACT seat must be etched in the minds of all prospective candidates. Mr Enderby lost the seat in 1975 to the Liberals’ John Haslem. Yesterday, Mr Langmore, while acknowledging some uncertainty for Ms Robinson, said labor would win the seat.