Every now and then I am blessed with a harmless reminder that I am not destined to win anything substantial at gambling. More out of social duty than anything else I put my name in for a $5 sweep for the World Cup. And drew Saudi Arabia.
In Melbourne Cup sweeps my horse never wins. Indeed, it never even comes last, because there is often a booby prize for the last horse. Mine comes second last.
So I am lucky, very lucky indeed. My reminders are very cheap. Others who win every now and then get what they describe as a euphoria and a odd feeling that somehow they have contributed to the win or been clever or artful. They like that feeling so they gamble again until they lose.
However, some people always win at gambling. These people are called the government. Last week’s ACT Budget figures revealed the startling extent to which Canberrans gamble and that about 10 per cent of ACT tax comes from it.
The astonishing thing is the amount of time that must be spent on mind-blowingly boring activities: watching horses run around a track in roughly the same way they did yesterday, or watching cyclinders with cards on them whirl round and round.
The bottom line ACT revenue figure of $47.8 million from gambling is the least important. The lines above it and the information behind them are more revealing. I estimate that next financial year the ACT will crack the big $1 billion in gambling turnover. That is $3300 per person per year or $4800 per adult _ about 70 per cent of it through the pokies.
Canberrans put $700 million through the pokies a year. A lot of that, of course, is recycled money. If a rational but ignorant Martian came into the average Canberra club, he, she or it would assume the whole aim of the exercise is to get all the round bits of metal that are in the tray into the machine. Every now and then a whole lot more round bits of metal fall into the tray but the Earthling perseveres and diligently tries to shovel them back into the machine. Only rarely does the Earthling give up and take the round bits of metal away.
Just say it takes and average of 20 seconds to put a dollar through a poker machine. That seems about right given that there are 20c machines as well. That means the average Canberra “”adult” sits in front of poker machines for 20 hours a year. Now I know about 365 people who do not play the pokies, so some people must be spending their whole lives in front of them.
Sad.
If our Martian were told of the simple probability theory behind the machines, he she or it would understand how reasonable it is for the Earthlings to expect that they have a reasonable chance of getting all those round pieces of metal into the machine.
With 100 coins on a machine that returns 85 per cent, half will have been retained by the machine after putting them through four times, and two-thirds gone after putting them through seven times.
And the attrition is remorseless. There is no beating it with superior knowledge or a “”system”. The number of combinations a machine can throw up is finite, the number of winning combinations is finite, the return is finite and the probability of any defined combination is exactly the same as any other defined combination.
The more you put through the machine, the more you lose.
This, combined with fairly predictable collective human nature, is why the ACT Revenue Office (and every other revenue office) can make fairly precise predictions about gaming revenue.
The estimates for gambling revenue made at budget time last year, for example, was more reliable than the estimates of revenue from conveyancing, financial institutions duty and life insurance.
The other revelation about the revenue figures is the disparity in the tax rates. The bigger the potential prize the higher the tax. Tattslotto and Lotto with the allure of prizes that fund early retirements are taxed at 32.5 per cent. It’s unconscionable. The pokies and the horses which offer only about a week’s wages as a big prize are taxed at about 3 and 6 per cent respectively.
I shall confine myself to office sweeps where there is no government take, and remain confident that Saudi Arabia prove again that gambling is a mug’s game.