Once was in a speech by ACT Liberal Opposition Leader, Kate Carnell, to the Australian Republican Movement. And other was in a leaked Attorney-General’s draft letter to the Prime Minister’s Department.
Let me explain the paradox. The vast mass Australians despise politicians. They do not trust them. Experience has shown them that politicians are power-hungry.
So, if there is to be a republic, the bulk of the masses, according to opinion polls, do not want a politician to be President.
Further, the masses distrust politicians so much they certainly will not entrust politicians with the task of selecting their president. Oh no, the masses say, we want to elect the president ourselves. Directly.
But if the masses do that, inevitably a Liberal Party candidate will stand for popular election and a Labor Party candidate will stand for popular election. Each will vie for the masses’ vote with the usual promises and hyperbole that goes with popular elections. Some assorted Democrats, Independents, Greens, small f fascists, small p pinkoes etc will also stand, but inevitably either the Liberal or the Labor candidate will win.
So, in their desire to oust politicians from the process, the masses will paradoxically let them in.
If, however, the politicians do the selecting (say by a two-thirds majority of both Houses) we can be assured that no Labor or Liberal politician will get any support from the other side and so will not get a two-thirds majority. Each party will deny itself the presidency. Good. Instead, they will have come up with some boring, bland apolitical compromise, like a judge, an admiral, a scientist or bureaucrat. Just the sort of gal or chap we want _ someone who will not meddle in the political process.
The leaked letter grasped the point. Kate Carnell partially grasped the point. In her enthusiasm for direct democracy she hinted that a direct election was better than an indirect one, but, in broadly supporting a republic, she at least grasped the point that a referendum should not be rushed into because debate will be closed while the public is still confused.
Between now an 2001 there will be at least 2500 NSW Rugby League games, 2000 AFL games, more than 1000 horse races, seven Australian Opens, 80 cricket tests and Richie Benaud knows how many one-day games. There will be 300 lawn-mowings, 110 barbecues, 14 cleaning-outs of the back shed, 350 car cleanings and dozens of shuttlings of children, teeth cleanings, light-globe changings and visits to the dentist.
All these things will take priority in the tiny 1300 grams of each of the masses’ brains. I estimate that the simple proposition that a popular election will lead to a politician president but a election by pollies will lead to a non-politician president will take three years, four months and 22 days to permeate the skulls of a majority of Australian voters.
This is why the monarchists want a referendum now.
The leaked letter warned any early attempt to endorse an indirect election for the President would alienate support for the republic. It advises an education campaign about the principles of responsible government first.
The Australian Republican Movement supports minimalism _ the minimum necessary change from having an hereditary English head of state selected on a basis that discriminates on grounds of religion and sex to having an Australian head of state. It acknowledges, though, that if the Great Australian Republican Paradox (GARP) is too hard to explain and the masses obstinately insist on a popular election for President, they will accept that, provided the President’s powers are strictly limited and codified.
As the Republican movement gains support, there will be more and more band-wagon jumpers-on. Bills of Rights, codification of the Head of State’s power, direct democracy etc etc will all muddy the waters.
However well-intentioned, they can only be counter-productive. Just over-coming GARP is going to be hard enough to get a non-political Australian Head of State.