The proposed boundaries marginally favour the Liberal Party and damage Independent Dennis Stevenson.
The Liberals benefit because a Labor-voting chunk of Woden has been dragged into Brindabella (Tuggeranong) which is already saturated with Labor voters, leaving an more pro-Liberal chunk in the seven-member central electorate to ensure the Liberals get a third seat there, which they would otherwise might be struggling to get.
Stevenson looses because his prime areas last election were the Oaks Estate and Tuggeranong. The Oaks Estate gave him nearly 25 per cent last election. Under the new boundaries Oaks Estate is in the central electorate. So Stevenson will have to get a quota in Tuggeranong without it. He is probably doomed anyway, because he needs a quota of 16.6 per cent. Last election he got 7 per cent overall and up to 11 per cent in some Brindabella (Tuggeranong) booths. Even with a generous spill of preferences for the fifth seat in Brindabella it will be a hard task, and harder without the Oaks Estate.
Going on past voting trends, it is clear that both major parties will get a minimum of two seats each in the five-member electorates (Ginninderra and Brindabella). They only need 34 per cent of the primary vote to do that. The last seat is then up for grabs between Labor and minors because the Liberals will be hard pushed to have enough residue after the 34 per cent to be in serious contention for a third seat in either of the five-member seats.
In the seven-member electorate, Labor is certain of three and the Liberals of two. The major parties need 38 per cent to get three seats. Labor will do that; the Liberals may not. The important point is that the new boundaries give the Liberals a better chance of doing it.
The new boundaries put the strongly Labor Chifley-Pearce-Torrens area into Brindabella where it will be wasted in the vast mass of strongly-Labor Tuggeranong, and they would leave the more pro-Liberal Farrer-Mawson-Isaacs-O’Malley in the central seat (Molonglo) where they will be help Liberal Party get a third seat.
Booth-by-booth results from the last Federal election suggest that the difference between putting Chifley-Pearce-Torrens in Brindabella and putting Farrer-Mawson-Isaacs-O’Malley there is about a one per cent benefit to the Liberals in the central seat. One per cent is not much, but it is what elections are all about.
It seems that on these boundaries, the Liberals have a better chance of picking up a seventh seat than they would under any of the proposals submitted as part of the boundary process, including, ironically under the Liberals’ own proposal.
Federally, the significance is that there is more chance of Farrer-Mawson-Isaacs-O’Malley going into a new third seat based on the centre of Canberra. If so it would help the Liberals get it.
In all (given the results of past elections studied booth-by-booth) the boundaries point a base of seven Labor, seven Liberal and three undecided. Of the three undecided the Liberals have little or no chance of getting any. Labor would have an excellent change of getting one and a moderate chance of getting two (one in each of the five member seats) and an remote chance of getting all three. Independents would have a good chance for one (in the centre), a moderate chance for two and a very remote chance for three.
Michael Moore will stand in Molonglo and is the best Independent chance. Helen Szuty will stand in Belconnen.
Both Independents and the Liberals are weak in Brindabella. Tony de Dominico and Trevor Kaine are established in Brindabella, but there is no strong third candidate. It points to Labor getting three seats in Brindabella, a got start to getting a majority.