It will be two hours into the count on election night before the polls close in Western Australia, given the difference in time zones. Usually Western Australians can tune into the box minutes after voting booths close and find out the result of the election Australia-wide. Unless it is close, that is.
With some polls now showing the Coalition only one point ahead on first preferences or dead level on the two-party preferred vote, it may well be that the election will be too close to call without seeing what happens in the West.
There is no joy in Western Australia for Labor. Realistically, Labor can only lose seats in the West; there are none to gain. The Liberals most vulnerable seat is Moore on 7 per cent. Moreover, Labor is defending a very favourable result in 1990 which was produced with a distributional quirk that is unlikely to be repeated.
Labor holds four seats by tiny margins and two others with moderate margins. There are two safe Labor seats and six safe Liberal seats.
The Labor marginals are: Stirling (0.2), Cowan (0.9), Canning (1.8), Swan (2.4), Peth (5.2), Brand (5.2).
The seats contain the most marginal, the pivot seat, two Ministers, the Deputy Speaker and the Government Whip.
Stirling is the most marginal seat in the country. If just 117 voters change their vote, the Liberals will take it. The seat is held by Ron Edwards who won it in the Hawke ascendancy in 1983. Before that it was held by Ian Viner, a Minister in the Fraser Government. It has frequently swapped sides. Mr Edwards has enjoyed a high profile as Deputy Speaker. His competent ability to control the ruffians of the House shines by comparison with the chair’s usual occupant, Leo McLeay. Stirling is an inner metropolitan seat in the residential and light industrial northern suburbs of Perth. The Liberal candidate is Eoin Cameron, a broadcaster on KY-FM.
The nation’s pivotal seat is Cowan on a 0.9 per cent swing. In theory if the Coalition gets an even swing of 0.9 per cent then it wins government. The seat on the northern metropolitan perimeter is held by Carolyn Jakobsen who was elected in 1984. The Liberal candidate is business consultant Richard Evans.
Canning, on the south-eastern outskirts of Perth has been held by the Government Whip, George Gear, since 1984. He was first elected in Tangey in 1983 until a redistribution rendered it an unwinnable Liberal seat. The Liberal candidate is businesswoman Ricky Johnston.
It is difficult to see Labor holding Stirling, Cowan or Canning if there is even a slight swing to the Liberals. Indeed, these three seats alone show the tightness of Labor’s position. With a swing of under 2 per cent, just in the West, John Hewson will be half way to the Lodge. Add a 1 per cent swing in NSW will finish the job for him, even if every other state stays the same.
The seat of Swan will attract a lot of attention. There, the unslender Minister for Employment, Education and Training, Kim Beazley, holds on by a slender 2.4 per cent. Mr Beazley, a Rhodes scholar, followed his father, Kim, sen, who was Minister for Education in the Whitlam Government. Mr Beazley, jun, was elected 1980. In 1983 he became Minister for Aviation and was Minister for Defence from 1984-1990. He has had a high national profile and is well-respected on both sides of the House for being a fine parliamentarian. His personal following would enable him to hold the seat against a moderate swing to the Coalition. And if the result stays close for the first two hours of counting in the east, maybe the commentators will recycle New Zealand Prime Minister Jim Bolger’s saying: “”The election ain’t over till the fat man sings.” Swan is a metropolitan seat in south and eastern Perth. The Liberal candidate is veterinary surgeon Bryan Hilbert.
Perth and Brand, each requiring a 5.2 per cent swing, are harder targets for the Coalition, though Labor’s task in Perth has not been helped by the retirement of the highly respected Olympic hockey medallist and medical practitioner Ric Charlesworth who had held the seat since 1983.
Brand, which spreads into the rural area south of Perth, is held by Wendy Fatin, the Minister Assisting the Prime Minister for the Status of Women for the past three years. Her quiet achievements in the women’s portfolio should make her hard to displace. Her Liberal opponent is farmer Adrian Fawcett, a shire councillor.
Of general help to Labor in the West is the fact that all the anger, fear and loathing caused by WA Inc has been exorcised by the Coalition’s win in the state election earlier this month. On the other hand, in 1990, the electoral distribution favoured Labor significantly. Labor got 47.1 per cent of the vote and the Liberals got 52.9. Yet Labor got eight seats and Liberals six. that is Labor got 57 per cent of the seats with 47 per cent of the vote. That is unlikely to happen again. It is difficult to see Labor coming out of this election unscathed in the West.