Nearly all the marginal seats in NSW are rural. Unlike some past elections, the Sydney metropolitan area will not play a large part in deciding who is to govern Australia.
The Coalition thinks its tax reforms will be a winner in rural NSW, and not the millstone they are in other areas. In the rural areas, the abolition of petrol excise counts for a lot. Taxing consumption rather than business inputs is attractive to rural exporters. However, these people might be Coalition voters anyway. The expansion of Sydney has caused some significant redistributions which do not help Labor.
The Labor-held marginals in NSW are: Lowe (0.5) Richmond (0.6) and Page (0.7) Parramatta (1.0), Calare (1.4), Macarthur (2.8), Robertson (3.5), Eden-Monaro (4.4).
The Coalition-held marginals are: Paterson (0.1), Gilmore (0.6), Macquarie (2.1).
Lowe, in Sydney’s inner west, is in fact held by the Coalition’s spokesman on health, Dr Bob Woods, but the redistribution makes it a Labor seat on 1990 figures. Dr Woods hopes he can keep the seat in a general swing to the Coalition. Dr Woods, a cancer specialist, was elected to the seat in 1987. His task of selling the Coalition’s health policy has given him a high national profile, however, given that Medicare is one of Labor’s most popular policies, that may not act as a plus. The seat has been subjected to significant redistribution on many occasions and has been held by both parties from time to time.
Parramatta is also in Sydney’s inner west. It used to be safe Labor, but with the abolition of the Liberal seat of Dundas and the movement of many of its voters into the seat, Labor’s Paul Elliott will be struggling to hold it. Malcolm Mackerras ü(1993 Federal Election Guide) puts the swing needed at 1 per cent.
Richmond (0.6) and Page (0.7), on the far north coast, have been quintessentially National party seats. Richmond, on the NSW north coast, was held by former National Party leader Doug Anthony, from 1957 to 1984, when it was taken by Charles Blunt, who lost it while party leader in 1990. The loss was put down to a strong showing by green independent Helen Caldicott whose preferences flowed to Labor. The demography of the seat has changed over the years following the invasion of back-to-earth young people in the green hinterland around Byron Bay and Murwillumbah. The Nationals are standing Doug’s son, Larry, who is likely to take the seat back from Labor’s Neville Newell.
In Page the Nationals are standing Grafton lawyer, Mike Emerson. Mr Emerson has been Mayor of Grafton for six terms against Labor’s Harry Woods.
The other Labor-held marginals are rural. Calare (1.4), based on Bathurst, is held by David Simmons, Minister for Local Government. It is expected to a hotly contested three-cornered fight between him and the Liberals’ John Staal, a retired RAAF officer now management consultant and the Nationals’ Ron Penny, a farmer and wool valuer. The seat was held by the Nationals throughout the 1960s and 70s before Mr Simmons took it in 1983. However, the redistribution might make its conservative vote as much Liberal as National.
Macarthur (2.8) stretches south-west from the outskirts of Sydney and includes Camden, Picton and Mittagong. It was held by Labor’s Stephen Martin, who chaired the inquiry into banking. But the redistribution caused him to move to Cunningham, a much safer Labor seat.
Robertson (3.5) is a coastal seat based on Gosford north of Sydney made slightly safer by the redistribution. It has been held by Frank Walker since the retirement of former Environment Minister Barry Cohen in 1990. Mr Walker, however, has a strong base in the area because he held the equivalent state seat for 18 years.
Eden-Monaro (4.4) is east and south of the ACT. It has been called the classic swinging seat because it has gone with the government at every election for two decades. Since 1983 Jim Snow has built a large personal following as local member. If there is a general swing to the Coalition, he is very likely to hold the seat against it. The Liberal candidate is Robert de Fegely, a forestry and environmental consultant. The Nationals are standing Jindabyne small businessman Tom Barry.
Paterson (0.1) coast just north of Newcastle includes Maitland and is a new seat, nominally held (on the 1990 figures) by the Coalition. Gilmore (0.6) is on the coast based on Nowra. It has been held by the Nationals John Sharp since its creation in 1984, but he fled to the safer seat of Hume following the redistribution, which excised a swag of National Party areas from Gilmore to Hume and took in more densely populated areas closer to Sydney.
Macquarie (2.1) stretches west from Richmond in Sydney’s outer west and includes Blue Mountains. The redistribution has made it less safe for the sitting Liberal Alasdair Webster, but the way the polls are going, he should not be in great danger.
In summary, although NSW is the most populous state with the most populous city, it is less critical in this election than Western Australia, South Australia and Queensland. State factors and the way the seats’ margins fall make Labor look better in NSW than elsewhere, though Labor has privately given away Richmond and Page and hopes to make them up in Tasmania and Victoria. The resdistribution certainly caused musical chairs in all parties, but the upshot will not be greatly different final numbers in the House.