EEarly in the campaign, Queensland was not looking good the Coalition, for one reason: sugar.
John Hewson has effectively diffused that issue and now Queensland looks very promising for the conservatives. Eight seats, enough for government are within range with margins of less than 5 per cent. On the other hand, Labor could only target one, perhaps two, Coalition seats.
Sugar was not only a turning point in Queensland. Nationally, it signalled that Dr Hewson’s lost of purity was not confined to the bringing down of Fightback II. He was prepared to give the cane growers a little on the side as well. And once he had done that, why not promise $30 million for a new university campus at Cairns for research and tourism, to upgrade the present branch office of the Townsville-based James Cook University?
Cairns, by the way, is in the marginal electorate of Leichhardt.
Sugar had been a real difficulty for the Coalition. Ten months ago National Party rebels crossed the floor over the near-zero-tariff policy and the Nationals’ Ray Braithwaite, who has held the MacKay-based marginal seat of Dawson since 1975, resigned from the frontbench over it. Clearly, he understood the heat in the issue _ better to have a backbench seat than no seat at all.
Rather than back-down on the near-zero-tariff policy, Dr Hewson offered the industry up to $150 million in compensation during its implementation. Given the sugar industry sells nearly all its product overseas, help on the business inputs side is more significant than holding up the tariff to help its domestic selling.
The eight Labor-held marginals are: Kennedy (1.9), Moreton (2.4), Dickson (3.2), Petrie (3.3), Leichhardt (3.8), Hinkler (4.0), Rankin (4.1), Herbert (5.0).
The Coalition marginal is Dawson (0.2). Fisher, now held by Labor, is now nominally a Liberal marginal (3.2).
The coalition has an outside chance at Capricornia, based on Townsville, following the Labor Member, Keith Wright, being charged with rape. The swing required, however, is a large 7.4 per cent.
Queensland’s seats do not fit the pattern of seats in other states, because of the population strength of Queensland’s provincial cities. Aside from the Brisbane seats and the rock-solid National Party seat of Maranoa in the south-west, each of the other seats contains a major provincial city (where Labor is stronger) and a bush hinterland (where the Nationals are stronger).
Leichhardt which embraces Cairns and Cape York peninsula is a three-cornered seat. It has been held by John Gayler since 1983. The nationals held it during the Fraser years and it was Labor for a long time before that. It includes the mining town of Weipa. The Liberals are standing market-research economist Bill Cummings, the 1990 candidate.
Kennedy, which embraces Mount Isa, and numerous farming towns in central Queensland, was taken by Rob Hulls in 1990 on the retirement of long-serving National MP, Bob Katter. Bob Katter’s son, Bob, jun, is standing this time and should retake the seat with some ease.
Herbert, based on Townsville, has a small bush hinterland and if Labor loses it, it will be to the Liberals, not the Nationals. It is the least likely of the marginals for the Coalition to capture. It has been held for Labor by Eamon Lindsay since 1983. Mr Lindsay, a solicitor, had a high profile on the Townsville City Council before that. The Liberals are standing Peter Hazard, who runs a chain of retail fishing shops, again.
Of the four city marginals, Rankin should be the most interesting. Former high-profile Brisbane Mayor Sallyanne Atkinson, until her surprise defeat in 1991, is pitted against the Minister for Small Business, David Beddall, who has held the seat since its creation in 1984. The seat, south-west of the city, includes some Gold Coast hinterland, but no coast itself. It has had significant boundary changes, which take out some National Party and Labor areas.
Moreton was been held by the Liberal Party by Jim Killen from 1955 until 1983. Through the Hawke years it was held by Don Cameron for the Libs. The ALP captured it in 1990. There has been a significant redistribution since then, but, according to Malcolm Mackerras ü1993 Federal Election Guide, AGPS, the swing to change the seat remains at 2.4 per cent. Garrie Gibson is standing again for Labor and the Liberal candidate is solicitor Margaret Steen. The seat is inner city and suburban. If there is a swing to the Coalition, this seat will be one to watch one election night. If Dr Hewson is to win Government he will have to carry seats like this one.
Dickson is a new seat, nominally Labor, requiring a nominal 3.2 swing. The seat nominally replaces Fisher, which is now a Liberal seat. Michael Lavarch, who held Fisher since 1987, has moved to this safer-for-Labor seat. However, it is by no means a lay down misere for him. The Liberal candidate is solicitor Peter Slipper, who held the seat of Fisher from 1984-1987. The seat will be a good piece of litmus paper on election night.
Petrie is another litmus. It has been held by both parties in government and opposition. Gary Johns has held it since 1987, when the Joh-for-Canberra campaign wrecked John Howard’s chance to go to the Lodge. The Liberals’ candidate is pharmacist Alan Sherlock, who has extensive involvement in Scout movement.
Hinkler was held by the National party from its creation in 1984 until 1987 by Bryan Conquest and by Brian Courtice since then. It is clearly a swinging seat and one that Dr Hewson would look to winning if he is headed for the Lodge.
In summary, Queensland has rich potential for the Coalition. Labor must do an effective holding operation if it is to retain Government. Queensland is the landslide state for the Coalition. Labor hopes to offset possible losses in South Australia and Western Australia with wins in Victoria and Tasmania to retain government. If Labor fails to do that, the Coalition will be looking to Queensland, which has no state factors (no banks, or Kennett) to be a true litmus of federal feeling. If it succeeds in Queensland it will get a large majority. If it does not, then Labor can rightly feel that if it loses government, it was because of a tiredness of Labor Governments state and Federal rather than a pro-Coalition feeling.
South Australia and Western Australia may well be where the election is won or lost, but Queensland will be the state which decides whether the majority is slender or large if the Coalition wins.