The Prime Minister, Paul Keating, has one thing going for him that John Hewson has not. Mr Keating can chose the date of the election. And true to his general style he is squeezing the juice of his advantage to maximum effect.
An odd hint in November of an early poll threw the Opposition into a mild panic, perhaps it was the final straw that scared it into putting retreads on Fightback.
The uncertainty causes greater damage to the Opposition, despite all the huffing and puffing that they are ready for an election any time. Gearing up for an election is a costly business, requiring great organisation. Volunteers have to be roped in, casual staff hired, television and radio advertisements booked (print media can just add pages any time someone puts up the dough; the electronics have only a finite amount of advertising time) and so on. How much better it would be if the Opposition knew the date.
Of course, it would be more convenient for journalists, industry associations and all the other hangers-on in the political process. They, too, would like to organise their staff, holidays, social functions and the like.
But Mr Keating keeps us waiting, because it is to his advantage.
“”When the Government thinks the time suits it, we’ll have an election,” he said before Christmas.
How long can he keep us waiting, legally, practically and politically?
The last election was held on March 25, 1990. The general principle is that we have three-year terms, so an election should be held in the last two weeks of March. Indeed, Mr Keating has hinted as much.
“”This Parliament is three years old in March, so any time between now and March is full time as far as I’m concerned,” he said.
But it could be much later.
The Constitution provides: “”Every House of Representatives shall continue for three years from the first meeting of the House, and no longer, but may be sooner dissolved by the Governor-General.”
After the 1990 election, the House of Representatives did not meet until May 9. This means that the House of Representatives is not to meet after May 9, 1993. The Constitution provides that writs for the election must issue within 10 days of that day, making it May 19, at the latest.
Under the Commonwealth Electoral Act, nominations must be called not less than 11 nor greater than 28 days after the writ (June 16 at the latest) and the election itself must be not less than 22 and not greater than 30 days after the nominations. This makes the latest possible date July 14.
However, a half Senate election must be held before June 30 and the Electoral Act says elections must be held on a Saturday, so than makes June 26 the last possible date.
The Constitution does not demand that the Senate election be over in time for the newly elected senators to take their seats on July 1, though there is an argument that that be the case. It merely provides that the election be held within a year before July 1. However, it does provide a fly in the ointment in an extreme situation. If a State Government felt that a Senate election was being delayed too long, it could advise the State Governor to call an election for that state’s senators. This provision was used by the Queensland Premier, Joh Bjelke-Petersen, in 1974. He told his Governor to proclaim an election for a half-Senate election (then five senators), stymieing an attempt by Gough Whitlam to have an election (more favourable to Labor) for six senators, including a by-election for Vince Gair who had been appointed Ambassador to Ireland.
This provision might prevent a Federal Government from hanging on too long. Indeed, given this provision and the Queen’s Birthday weekend on June 12-14 and a holiday weekend in Western Australia on June 5-7, a June election can be ruled out. May 22 and May 29 are similarly cutting it a bit fine for the half-Senate election.
May 15-17 is a holiday weekend in South Australia and May 1-3 is a holiday weekend in Queensland. April 10-12 is Easter and April 24-26 is an Anzac long weekend.
That leaves: May 8; April 17 (between Easter and Anzac, so not a good time); April 3 or any one of the eight Saturdays in February or March.
The early February weekends are unlikely because the Constitution and the Electoral Act together provide a minimum 33 days between the calling of an election and the election itself. This means if an election were to be held in early February it must be called in early January. Mr Keating is on holiday until January 17 and he would need some consultation time.
That leaves February 27, March 6, 13, 20 or 27, April 3 or May 8.
Given that Fightback’s retreads have given the Opposition a boost in the polls, it might well be that Mr Keating now needs more time.
Most commentators suggest a March poll. They argue that the later it is left, the less Mr Keating can take the Opposition by surprise. Not so. The longer he leaves it, the more uncertain things become. The Opposition is probably looking at March anyway. What better way to catch them out than to ünot@ call the poll then. Moreover, by delaying the poll, Mr Keating could have a parliamentary session in February-March to pass his new oath/affirmation of allegiance legislation. Combined with a bit of Anzac jingoism, this could be the recipe for an election on May 8. A parliamentary session, moreover, is where Mr Keating shines.
The late poll fits the general principle that governments in trouble (and this one is, whatever the aberrant flutter in recent polls) hang on to office as long as possible _ they like the power, salaries and perks.
Despite all the talk of a dash to the people while the opinion polls are good, the Government needs time. It needs time to make the retreaded Fightback become old hat, to crystallise its own new policies and to get the Western Australian election over with. The Government perhaps hopes for another Victoria in Western Australia, with a new Liberal Government causing outrage and uncertainty throughout the very state where the Federal Liberals hope to do best.
Incidentally, though the election might be later than most think, the result will be known more quickly than in past years. Under a recommendation by the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters, a provisional distribution of preferences can take place on election night without waiting for the final count of first preferences. This will result in more reliable predictions on the night. And my guess is that that night will be May 8.