Crispin Hull

Senate a key to minority choice

Life for a minority Labor Government after the election would be far easier than life for a minority Liberal Government, for one reason: the Senate and how it is elected.

Even if Labor loses a percentage point or two of the overall vote at the next election, it is very unlikely to lose any Senate seats, indeed it could pick one up.

A new (without US) rules-based alliance

Surely, the members of the 75-year-old post-war US-led alliances must understand that the US’s role in security and the rules-based order is over, and act accordingly. Some are.

President Donald Trump has betrayed Ukraine in a slurry of lies. He thinks he can force a Ukrainian capitulation without any security backup to his friend and ally in authoritarianism, Russian President Vladimir Putin. He can’t. If European nations want to put troops on the ground in Ukraine and Ukraine wants them, they can, whatever the objections of the Russian-US alliance.

Medicare exposes political hearts

Some months ago, I wrote that the original design of Medicare had a fundamental defect. Alas, Labor’s $8.5 billion injection – instantly matched by the Coalition – does not fully address it. A good start but not visionary enough. It is another example of Medicare telling us a great deal about Australian politics and Australian politicians, and it will do so again this election.

‘Forming’ or electing governments

We are racing headlong into an election that will almost inevitably result in a hung Parliament. And many would say we are going to an election far too quickly – hardly time for a government get its feet under the desk.

It is nearly half a century since an unelected representative of the British Crown sacked a government and Prime Minister (Gough Whitlam) elected by the people less than two years before and installed the Leader of the Opposition (Malcolm Fraser) as Prime Minister.

Major parties deepening the hole they are in

Hey, major parties, if you are in a hole – with your primary vote with a 3 in front of it, or even a 2 – why keep digging?

If the electorate thinks you are a lot of self-serving, bums-on-seats obsessives, what better way to validate the electorate’s view of you than by stitching up an electoral funding deal which is totally skewed in favour of the major parties?

American or Trump’s values, or are they the same

Australia can now either grimace and bear it for four years pretending nothing has happened; or face reality and question whether AUKUS and the US alliance more generally are worth it.

ANZUS and AUKUS were, from the start, purportedly based on “shared values”. Less than a month into the Donald Trump presidency can we put our hands on our hearts and say, “We share values with the US, and we will spill blood and treasure for those values”?

The acid question now is: to what extent are Trump’s values American values?

The paradox of recent politics

Hinkley nuclear power station in the UK – In 2007 estimated cost 9 billion pounds and construction time of 10 years. Cost now at 49 billion pounds and completion in 2031.

A paradoxical realignment is under way in Australian and US politics.

Until recently, the Republican Party in the US and the Liberal Party in Australia were the parties of business, entrepreneurs, the professions, and the relatively wealthy. And the Democrats and Labor were the parties of the worker. The Democrats and Labor were always wary of new technology because it invariably costs jobs.

Ukraine: expect the unexpected again

Expect the unexpected in Ukraine. Events on the ground and, more importantly, on and below the surface of the sea suggest as much.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, then a comedian who played a fictional Ukrainian president in a TV series, unexpectedly ran in the 2019 election and unexpectedly won in a landslide against the political establishment.

Dine out on this pathetic tax policy

“I can’t go to work to earn an income unless I pay for childcare.”

This was a woman taxpayer’s plea at an Australian Administrative Appeals Tribunal hearing I was reporting on in the early 1980s. No, no, said the tribunal, that is a personal expense.

Forty years later, childcare is still not tax deductible.

Numbers stack up for Dutton’s hard right push

The notion that Opposition Leader Peter Dutton cannot win this year’s election unless he moves more to the centre to recapture the seats lost last election to the teals, independents, and Greens is misguided because it defies electoral arithmetic.

In fact, Dutton’s divisive, polarising, attention-grabbing politics provides a more likely path to victory for him than moving to the centre. It is unfortunate, but true.

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