The euphoria over the release from house arrest of Burma democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi is understandable, but may be premature. The military, which has ruled Burma repressively for four decades, has not suddenly seen the light and decided that truth, justice and democracy are good things and that they should return to their barracks. Rather some of them appear to be driven by fear. The military is clearly split. Some would like to cling to power uncompromisingly. Others. Though, see that the combination of economic sanctions and the HIV epidemic is leading the nation to such an appalling state that it will not be worth ruling or not capable of being ruled as economic breakdown leads perhaps to revolution.
Perhaps they think that by releasing Ms Suu Kyi they will gain some concessions from the international community – particularly western democracies — in the form of a relaxation of economic sanctions. The west should not be so easily fooled. Western countries should wait for a more definite path to democracy and respect for human right to emerge before any sanctions are lifted.
Ms Suu Kyi has been under house arrest for 19 months. There were no restrictions on her release, according to Ms Suu Kyi, but past behaviour by the military indicates that much caution is needed. Since Ms Suu Kyi won the 1990 election with about 80 per cent of the vote in 1990, she has been in and out of various forms of arrest and cruelly mistreated – especially being denied the possibility of being reunited with her husband before his death in England in 1999. Members of her National League for Democracy has been arbitrarily arrested, detained and tortured.
True, the military has released about 250 political prisoners in the past 18 months, but Ms Suu Kyi rightly complains that the release rate has been too slow and more than 1000 remain in detention.
Talks are continuing under the auspices of the United Nations about moves to democracy, but there has been little specific about the form of a Constitution. There has been talk about the economy, which is in desperate straits. Here the military have to be told quite bluntly that there can be no progress on trade or economic aid until political reform is set in concrete.
That the military have released Ms Suu Kyi and other prisoners is a welcome sign that sanctions can work to exert pressure on military and other dictatorial regimes. The theory that they only hurt the poor is not always the case. True, the poor do suffer from sanctions, but equally they suffer from the repression of dictatorships.
In the case of Burma, the voice of Aung San Suu Kyi must be listened to. She has urged the west not to lift sanctions, using cautious language that would not upset the military but language clear enough to express her desire that sanctions continue. Having come this far and having got this concession, sanctions should stay and the pressure maintain against the military rulers.
Australia’s dealings with the military rulers has been ambivalent. Australia sponsored “”human rights training programs” for middle ranking officers in Burma, a move condemned by the National League for Democracy. Yesterday, Foreign Minister Alexander Downer attempted to claim some credit fro Ms Suu Kyi’s release because of these courses. It was a long bow. In 40 years the Burmese military have shown a ruthless disregard for human rights only dented by the adverse consequences of sanctions.