The hopes for a peaceful political settlement in East Timor after 24 years turmoil are now in jeopardy. Everything will now depend on the actions of at least nine key interests: five external and four internal.
The Indonesian Government, has at last recognised that the province is a huge economic burden. In 1975, faced with the possibility of a radical communist enclave in its midst was determined to annexe the province as its own. With the demise of the Cold War that threat evaporated. With the departure of President Suharto the last emotional and face-facing reasons for keeping the province fell away. President Jusuf Habibe prudently decided to allow the province to go its own way.
However, it is not as simple as that from the Indonesian point of view. The Indonesian Army does not necessarily think on all fours with the Indonesian Government. It is generally in favour of territorial integration. Ultimately it will go along with the Habibe Government, but it will be reluctant and wherever possible will push its own integrationist agenda. It is a worrying force.
The Australian Government, long a supporter of Indonesia’s grip on the province has had the raison d’être of its policy cut from under its feet. Indonesia itself has stated it no longer wants East Timor if the East Timorese do not want Indonesia. This has been coupled with a sudden finding of conscience within the Labor Party about the morality of not supporting East Timorese self-determination from the moment of Portuguese withdrawal in 1975. Since then there has been a scramble by all sides in Australian politics to at least a respectable moral ledge even if the moral high ground has long since been beyond reach. The Australian Government’s position is now a preference for Timorese autonomy within Indonesia but an acceptance that Timor may wish to go it alone. Either way, Australia will provide material help.
Portugal, which abandoned East Timor in 1975 after a coup in Portugal swept the Socialists to power, has maintained a desire to see an act of East Timorese self-determination. But its position has always been compromised by the accusation of abandonment at the critical time. Portugal would dearly like to a peaceful political solution for a variety of practical and moral reasons. The guilt that it must in part bear would be exculpated by an act of self-determination.
The fifth external element is the United Nations. The UN has recognised that Portugal is the de jure power in East Timor, even tough it has not practical force on the ground. The UN comes from a position of supervising a decolonisation process, albeit one that is 24 years too late. But the UN does not want an immediate and active role. It has ruled out sending in a peace-keeping force. The grounds for that are rather spurious. On one hand it might say that peace is not threatened, even though the people of East Timor have suffered 24 years of brutality. But if it is threatened the UN will argue that there is no peace to be kept. The UN should be more active. True, it is sponsoring talks between Indonesia and Portugal, but it is not engaging in a preventative way. This is a shame. A small amount of preventative intervention now could save a lot of blood later.
Internally, three perhaps four divergent elements are emerging.
There is the pro-Indonesian group. These people are made up of migrants from other parts of Indonesia on one hand and those among the East Timorese who since 1975 thought that Indonesia would inevitably rule the province and so fell into line. These people live in East Timor and are now fearful that an independent East Timor would threaten their economic and social future. These people are the key to whether any transition to independence is peaceful and orderly. If they feel that reprisals, discrimination or deportation will be their fate under an independent East Timor they will become more active in their pursuit of continued links with Indonesia. We are seeing the bloody fruits of that view now. Because these people hold fears for an independent East Timor it is imperative that a political resolution arising from a vote on autonomy or independent happens as quickly as possible. The longer the hiatus goes on the more that the fears of these people can be preyed upon, particularly by elements in the Indonesian army. Brave words of reconciliation have been spoken, and undoubtedly they have been meant. But the extent of the brutality in the East Timor in the past 24 years has engendered a fear in those who have taken part in that brutality that reprisals are understandable and inevitable. The only counter to those fears is a result on the ground: independence and actual magnanimity to those fearful of reprisal.
Among those who have championed independence for the past 24 years, opinion is now worrisome. Jose Ramos Horta, who has led the independent movement from exile, has with much grace pursued peaceful resolution and forgiveness. But he has had the luxury of expounding his views from exile. He carries fewer emotional driving factors than those on the ground who have seen the spilled blood first hand.
One of those is Xanana Gusmao,. Now held under house arrest in Jakarta. In the past few days his capacity for forgiveness has been tested to its limits by two deadly incidents in Timor in which the innocent have died. There has been quibbling about the precise extent of the atrocities, but the fundamental point remains that while there is violence on the ground in East Timor with no quick and certain settlement in sight, the desire to seek revenge or at least maintain and exercise protective force must be intense. That has manifested itself in a call to defence arms by Xanana. It is an alarming chain of events. The East Timorese must, after 24 years of suffering, ignore the call and be patient. TO do otherwise is to invite bloodshed and the defeat of their ultimate aim.
The last force is that of the Catholic Church embodied in Bishop Carlos Belo. He can be a major force for peace.
The critical point now is for Belo and Horta to restrain the fury of Xanana Gusmao or at least restrain the response his calls to arm might engender. If this happens the Indonesia Government and Army might respond and all out bloodshed be avoided.
A peaceful, independent East Timor is now within reach. The dream must not be destroyed by 13th hour hot-headedness. With the big governments committed to self-determination (usually the biggest obstacle), it would be a tragedy if it failed on the ground.