Now that the Taliban militia have taken the Afghan capital Kabul and are in control of virtually the whole country, many will hope that a semblance of peace will return to Afghanistan. But their hopes are likely top be premature.
The Afghan people have suffered two decades of continuous war. The nation has long been a pawn in great power plays between Europe and Asia, and little has changed. The success of the take-over by the Taliban was largely due to outside influence. In this instance Pakistani help for the Taliban and a blind eye turned by the US because it saw the previous Afghan government as getting support from the dreaded Iran, largely turned the balance of power.
Afghanistan has long been the pawn in what Kipling called the Great Game. Invaded by Mongols in medieval times and then a battleground of 19th century rivalry between Britain and Russia, this century saw it as a testing ground for the Cold War rivalry between the Soviet Union and the US. In 1979 it was invaded by the Soviet Union and ruled by a puppet communist government for 10 years which faced strong internal resistance from the Mudijhadeen. When the Soviet Union fell the Mudijhadeen fought furiously among themselves, much to the consternation of several of Afghanistan’s neighbours, especially Pakistan, which sought and end to the drugs and arms runners through the country so that trade routes could be secured.
Geography has been the historic sources of Afghanistan’s trouble. It has never had its own outlet to the sea, but it has always been a significant land route between many countries. Last century it bordered Russia, China, India and Persia. Through most of this century it has bordered the Soviet Union. Now it has borders with China, Iran, India, Pakistan and the nations that formed after the Soviet collapse: Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Each of these has a interest in stability in Afghanistan and for a reasonably strong government in Kabul. They want trade routes open and they want an end to drug and arms smuggling. But they also want the Kabul Government to deal with its minorities in a way that does not foment cross-border instability.
It is not likely that a Taliban Government will deliver on these things, despite promises by its leader Mullah Omar that the Taliban will give an amnesty to the forces of the previous government and will respect minority right. The Taliban are largely Pushtan, who comprise a little over 50 per cent of the Afghan population. That leaves five or six other significant minorities out of the picture. The Taliban are also Sunni Muslims who comprise 85 per cent of the population, leaving a 15 per cent Shi-ite minority out of the picture. These facts would not be significant is the Taliban had a record of toleration and inclusiveness. But all indications are to the contrary.
The Taliban has revealed itself as a fanatical, intolerant extremist group that wants to impose the strictest view of Islamic law on the whole nation. It has closed girls’ schools, ordered that women must wear head-to-toe robes with even the eyes covered by mesh, banned television, video, recorded music and dancing, ordered men to grow beards, and ordered the death penalty for adultery and drinking. It has summarily hanged the leader of a former government after dragging him from a UN safe house and caused 15,000 people to flee Kabul.
Though many in Afghanistan have welcomed the Taliban when it has taken various cities because it has put an end to corruption and banditry and ensured better food supplies, it is still not likely that the take-over will result in peace. Minorities are likely to resist. Moreover, the Taliban is not likely to put an end to the drug trade. It has used drug profits itself in the past.
In short, peace is likely to be some time off and in the meantime, gross breaches of human rights, particularly against women, will run rampant.