The ACT will wait a week before the ACT Electoral Commissioner is permitted to start counting preferences. Under the Hare-Clark system the direction of preferences is very hard to predict. There are several complicating factors. Many people only vote for major party candidates and do not express preferences beyond that. Their ballot papers are excluded. Many people cross-vote. This means they give one or two preferences with on party and then swap to others. It is likely, given the high personal popularity of Kate Carnell, for example, that she might have got a lot of first preferences from voters who direct their second preferences elsewhere _ even to Labor.
Further, under the system preferences get counted in several different ways. The preferences from candidates who have reached a quota are transferred at a discount. The preferences of excluded candidates are transferred at face value. And some preferences are transferred through while other ballot papers sit with the elected candidate. Small wonder last night that few people were willing to be too definite. That said, here is a likely possibility. Brindabella: Liberals definite two (the quotas are there on first preferences). They will got to the sitting members Tony De Domenico and Trevor Kaine. Labor will also get two (1.9 quotas means they only need a little shrapnel from elsewhere to get the second over the line.) It is likely that Whitecross’s preferences are probably not enough to save the number 2 on the Labor ticket over the high personal vote of Bill Wood (who was demoted to number 3). Wood has shown the advantages of the Hare-Clark system in that an individual can beat the party ticket. The last seat is likely to go to Osborne on 0.67 of a quota. This is because the Liberals have 2.23 quotas and Osborne could expect to pick up much of the over-quota as the Liberals directed preferences his way. The Greens, Democrats and Moore independents have in total 0.9 of a quota between them. It would need a very tight flow of preferences for the Greens Andrew Parratt to get over the line, but it is not out of the question.
Ginninderra: The Liberals have 2.44 quotas on first preferences and so will get two seats. One of these will go to sitting member Bill Stefaniak. The other is between Cheryl Hill, Lyle Dunne and Harold Hird. Hill and Hird are neck and neck on first preferences, but Hill is more likely to pick up Stefaniak’s preferences than Hird. Labor has 1.97 and will also get two seats _ sitting members Wayne Berry and Roberta McRae. The last seat is between Helen Szuty (Moore Independent) on 0.48 and the Greens’ Lucy Horodny on 0.52. Democrats preferences will go to the Greens, but it is possible Szuty can pick up enough of the Liberals’ over quota to get back. Also as a sitting member she can expect some extra recognition preferences from other candidates.
Molonglo: This is the most difficult seat to pick. The Liberals have 3.43 quotas on first preferences and so will get three certain seats. Labor has 2.48 and so will get a certain two. The Greens have 0.81 and have to be regarded as almost a certainty. Michael Moore has 0.7 of a quota and would have to be the leader for the last seat, ahead of Labor’s David Lamont. This is because Moore can expect to pick up preferences from the Liberal party who have an over quota of 0.43. Indeed, there appears to have been a late internal Liberal campaign to give Moore preferences because of the fear of a late Green surge. Looking at these figures the most likely result in Molonglo is Carnell, Humphries, Cornwell, Follett, Connolly, Tucker and Moore.