Former Health and Sports Minister Wayne Berry remains the least well-thought-of key MLA, despite being out of the hot seat for 10 months, according to the latest Canberra Times-Datacol poll. The man who took over the health hot seat, Terry Connolly, appears not to have suffered from it. He remains third behind Kate Carnell and Rosemary Follett among a list of nine key ACT politicians. The poll shows that health is the issue of highest concern in the election campaign.
The poll showed that 37 per cent are very dissatisfied and 34 dissatisfied with the ACT Government’s performance on health. Only nine are satisfied and three very satisfied with 18 citing a middle-level performance.
The good news for Mr Berry is that while is overall dissatisfaction level remains at 60 per cent since last Spetember’s poll, about five per cent have moved from regarding his performance as very bad to regarding his performance as just bad. Only 6 per cent thought his performance good and 1 per cent very good. Mr Berry heads Labor’s how-to-vote ticket in Ginninderra.
Ms Follett has improved her position slightly since the last poll, with fewer people rating her as very bad. Mrs Carnell has remained the same. Liberal Tony De Domenico has fallen slightly, picking up four extra per cent in the very-bad category. Independent Michael Moore is down a tad, with support polarising. Some of these changes must be treated with caution because of the low percentages involved in the change of opinion.
The poll showed a very high recognition level of the key candidates with all but Bill Wood (87 per cent) in the 90s. These levels of recognition are probably higher than politicians in other states. The high recognition levels combined with the disparity in satisfaction levels does not augur well for the poor performers under the Hare-Clark system, if Tasmanian experience is any guide. Some elections in Tasmania have seen more than a third of MPs lose their seats, but the final party balance has remained about the same.
The Government’s 71 per cent dissatisfaction rating in health contrasts with education and employment, its two best issues among a list of six. In education, only 33 per cent are dissatisfied and 31 are dissatisfied in employment. The ACT has the highest retention rates to Year 12 in Australia and the lowest unemployment rates, though youth unemployment is among the highest. The table shows the levels of satisfaction. Since self-government voters have tended to be fairly critical of government. In that context you would have to put the middle batch more towards the satisfied than dissatisfied side.
Health has long been a difficult issue in the ACT. The former Alliance Government faces the stigma of closing Royal Canberra Hospital. The present Labor Government has had a great deal of disruption from the upgrading of Woden Valley Hospital and a concerted campaign by the Opposition showing longer waiting lists for surgery, long waiting times a casualty and overspending in virtually every area of health against national averages _ particularly over heads and administration. The Government has rated a 51 per cent dissatisfaction level for economic management. It cites balanced recurrent budgets for three years; debt reduced from $1000 a head to $180 a head; and a triple A credit rating as its main achievements.
The Opposition sees a major structural problem with the Budget. It says that on the Government’s own figures, the ACT has a $74 million shortfall over the next three years; that Commonwealth grants will fall; and that to make up the shortfall the ACT can expect tax and charges increases of 25 per cent or massive borrowings _ according to the Government’s own economic advice. When election promises are added it sees major problems. Land and planning is seen as less of an issue. It is the sort of issue that is of great significance to the people directly affected and of little moment to everyone else. Both sides foresee overhauls of various elements of the planning system to give residents a greater say and the Liberals have promised a more streamlined approval process.