Idle speculation was rife in ACT politics yesterday while the work was being done by Electoral Commission staff and the scrutineers. They were speaking of seats, Ministries, deals and the Speakership. If the result is the likely one: Liberal 7, Labor 6, Greens 2, Moore 1 and Osborne 1, everything will turn on Michael Moore. Paul Osborne has said he will vote as Chief Minister the leader of the party with the most votes, which means Kate Carnell. That would give the Liberals 8. Labor can deal as much as it likes with the Greens, and still capture an equal 8. So Moore would decide. In the past six years he has supported Labor. Now it is different. Before the 1992 election he said he would support Rosemary Follett. This time he said he would decide after the election. This time he has put up with an anti-Moore campaign by Labor.
Labor’s Wayne Berry constantly tried to associate him with Abolish Self-Government MLA Dennis Stevenson. On election day Labor people handed out “”independent” how-to-vote cards in a way that confused potential Moore voters. Labor condemned him over cannabis and euthanasia. Mrs Carnell has been more sympathetic to these and Mr Moore’s agenda on open and accountable government. Of greater importance was the fact that some Liberals in Molonglo did an informal “”support Moore” campaign for Liberal preferences in the hope of defeating the Greens.
Mr Moore voted with the Liberal Party 40 per of the time in the past three years. It is perhaps more likely he will support the Liberals than Labor this time. One thing is clear, Mr Moore would at least support a Liberal Speaker _ perhaps Greg Cornwell who was deputy in the last Assembly. In the meantime, Labor will go after the Greens. One minority view in the Labor Party is utterly against any deals because they lead to the sort of strife experience by Labor in Tasmania with the Greens. That view suggests that it would be better to hand government to the Liberals and Kate Carnell and watch her struggle with a demanding Michael Moore (on education and planning), and uncertain Paul Osborne and a possibly maverick Trevor Kaine _ who would still like to be leader. (Mrs Carnell might like to give Mr Kaine the speakership to get him our of the way with sufficient honour and glory to assuage his wounded pride, but Michael Moore would not support it.)
On this view a Carnell Government would disintegrated like the Alliance Government, and Labor would be welcomed back. However, the main view in the Labor Party is that handing over power without a fight “”is not in the manual”. Power is to be retained no matter what. The compromises that the Liberals would have to make to Mr Moore would be on education and planning. He would be against free school buses because children can go to elite out-of-area schools more easily, thus undermining some local schools leading to closures. He would be against lower betterment and free lease renewals. These are major Liberal campaign promises. He would also have qualms about the Liberals’ privatisation plans for ACTION.
The Labor Party’s dealing with the Greens might involve a rearrangement of some funding priorities to environmental projects and things in the Greens education and health policies. It is perhaps a bit early for names but a Carnell Government might contain: Mrs Carnell (health), Tony De Domenico (finance), Gary Humphries (law and justice), Greg Cornwell (environment and planning). Trevor Kaine for Speaker. Bill Stefaniak would like environment and with it planning and would have some claim given his high polling in Ginnderra. If so Mr Cornwell would be Speaker and Mr Kaine on the back-bench (a recipe for discontent). A Follett Government might be: Ms Follett (finance), Wayne Berry (anything but health, possibly planning), Terry Connolly (law); Roberta McRae (health). Mr Berry can reasonably claim that after topping the poll in Ginninderra he can put Vitab behind him and re-enter the ministry with a new mandate (and a lot of powerful support in the left of the party).