The Greens decision to preference progressive independents (many of whom are referred to as Teals) over Labor could be decisive this election.
It will make a minority Labor government more likely, and it is more likely to cost the Coalition seats than cost Labor.
This is because the decision will make it harder for the Liberals to regain what were its safe seats that it lost to independents in 2022.
Preferences are becoming increasingly important in Australian elections. Last election, more than 90 per cent of the seats were decided on preferences.
Perhaps of greater importance is the increasing number of seats where the run-off is not between the Coalition and Labor but between minor-party or independent (let’s call them “minors”), on one hand, and a major-party candidate, on the other.
Last election, 24 of 151 seats were run-offs between minors and a major party, and the minors won almost two-thirds of them.
This election, expect that to rise significantly, perhaps more than double. Indeed, polls are showing that the Coalition’s first preference has fallen to below a third of the vote. It is shaping up to be the first election at which minors out-poll each of the major parties.
In this environment, how-to-vote cards are important, even decisive – despite a high percentage of voters do not follow them.
We know this because the Electoral Commission publishes preference flows in great detail. But the central point remains that enough voters follow the how-to-vote-card to change the outcome in quite a few seats.
Bizarrely, the Liberal Party’s how-to-vote cards will make a Labor majority government more likely. This is because it has put Labor ahead of the Greens and ahead of some well-supported independents in quite a few seats.
It could mean Labor winning one or two of the Green-held seats in Queensland. It could shut out pro-Palestinian independents in Sydney, shoring up Labor’s position against them. It could shut out a community-environmentalist candidate in each of Tasmania and Western Australia – handing the seats to Labor.
If Labor gets across the line to majority Government, it could well be because of Liberal Party preferences.
Maybe the Liberals would prefer a majority Labor government to a minority Labor government because a Labor minority Government would be forced into doing all sorts of sensible things on the environment, energy, political donations, and integrity – things the Liberal Party is not interested in.
It is not uncommon for a major party to win a seat on the preferences of the other major party. For example, in 2022, the Liberals won Wannon ahead of an independent on Labor preferences because 20 per cent of Labor voters put the Liberal ahead of the independent, contrary to Labor’s how-to-vote card. Those preferences carried the Liberal over the line.
To balance out the way the Coalition’s preferences will make a majority Labor Government more likely, Green preferences will make it less likely.
The Greens have put progressive independents ahead of Labor. In seats which had been Liberal before 2019 and 2022 it will help put the independent ahead of Labor with the independent winning on Labor preferences. In seats now held by Labor, Green preferences might put an independent above Labor during the count, but ultimately Labor would win on Liberal preferences.
Preferences aside, a new voting trend has emerged with the rise of the minors. Many Labor supporters are not voting Labor. In 2022, the Labor vote fell to 10 per cent or less in many of the seats taken by independents from the Liberals. The Green vote also fell in those seats.
Clearly a lot of usually Green and Labor voters are voting strategically for independents in what were Liberal seats so the independent gets ahead of Labor and wins on Labor preferences.
It is an effective progressive vote, rather than a rusted-on Labor or rusted-on Green vote. Expect more of it.
Much has been made of the Coalition’s decision to do a preference deal with One Nation – each putting the other second on the how-to-vote card.
It is unlikely to have much effect. For a start, One Nation will always be excluded before the Coalition candidate so will never receive Coalition preference. Further, One Nation is hard-pressed to get enough volunteers to hand out how-to-vote cards at many polling booths, particularly during early voting.
One Nation’s vote is higher in sparsely populated areas which have lots of small polling places – making the task that much more difficult.
Many One Nation voters will have to vote unguided. In the past, the Coalition has received about 65 per cent of One Nation preferences.
If Labor fails to get a majority, the big question is what sort of minority government would it form.
Progressive independents are now wary of formal deals guaranteeing Supply and confidence because of the experience between 2010 and 2013 when Labor did nothing about the gambling reform that it promised independent Andrew Wilkie.
Labor is wary of going into a formal Coalition with the Greens after bad experiences in the 1990s in Tasmania.
It may mean no formal deals, with the Government not relying on a positive pledge of Supply and confidence but relying on an absence of no-confidence motions or blockage of Supply.
Legislation would have to be negotiated through. And it would still have to go through the Senate. In the Senate the Coalition faces the impossible task of getting re-elected all of its senators whose six-term began in 2019, when the Coalition did well. Expect the Coalition to lose as many as four senators.
With any luck, after Saturday, Australia will have a government less paralysed by the influence of corporate donations and scare campaigns and bold enough to make much-needed tax, energy, and productivity policy changes as it is forced to negotiate its way rather than impose it.
Crispin Hull
This article first appeared in The Canberra Times and other Australian media on 29 April 2025.