FORGET LABOR, the Greens will be rubbing their hands at the latest opinion polls. Even if you shave a few per cent either way for a margin of error or a change in opinion, the Greens are set to do what they have not achieved before: hold the balance of power in the Senate on their own. And they are being very quiet about it. Let’s come back to the Senate later. First, let’s look at what these polls mean for the Prime Minister’s seat of Bennelong. Bennelong and Eden-Monaro are now the litmus seats on the Mackerras pendulum. Bennelong’s boundaries have been changed several times in recent years each time moving it further west
into Labor territory and away from the North Shore Liberal territory. On an even swing Labor needs these seats to win Government. Now, it might win some safer Coalition seats and lose some more marginal seats. But overall, if Labor wins, it will be more likely that Howard will lose Bennelong than win it. It should be an unremarkable result.
What would be extraordinary is Labor winning Government but Howard retaining his seat. It is difficult to see that happening. If Labor cannot pick up enough voters in the centre and west of Bennelong to win that seat, it is unlikely to pick up enough votes in seats like it around the country to form Government. It is no good saying Howard is the Prime Minister and so has a big personal following because as economists are so fond of saying that has already been factored in. The swing needed in the redrawn Bennelong is about 3 per cent, based on previous voting with the Howard factor already accounted for. Besides, if Labor is to win it might need an anti-Howard factor, as
distinct from an anti-Coalition or pro-Labor factor. If it can’t get that in Bennelong, it can’t get it anywhere. Now to the Senate. (I won’t count the territories for a moment. They always elect one senator each from each major party, and always will.) The polls show the Greens’ vote is holding up at around 7 to 7.5 per cent, about what they got in the Senate last Senate election when they got two new senators Rachel Siewart in Western Australian and Christine Milne. Kerry Nettle (NSW) and Bob Brown (Tasmania) were elected in 2001 and are likely to be re- elected.
The new factor is the agonisingly slow death of the Democrats. Four of their senators come up for re-election Lyn Allison (Victoria), Andrew Bartlett (Queensland), Andrew Murray (Western Australia), Natasha Stott-Despoja (South Australia). The last two are not standing. Bartlett resigned the leadership of the Democrats in inauspicious circumstances in December 2004. It is unlikely that any Democrats will be elected.
That leaves a lot of room for the Greens. In most Senate elections most states split 3, 2, 1. Three seats go to the major party with the most votes; two go to the other major party and the single seat goes to a minor party or Independent. That happened in all states in 2001. As senators have a six-year term, it is those senators up for re-election at the next election. The Coalition will be defending three seats in each state. Labor will be defending two in each state. Even allowing for a bit of a shift in opinion and some polling error, it seems likely that the Coalition will lose a senator in four, five or possibly six states in each case to Labor. It may be that Family First or the Democrats get a seat, but it is unlikely. They are not showing on the polling radar. Only the Greens, among the minors and Independents, have been polling well enough to expect seats. It may be that some states split three senators each to the major parties. That happened in NSW and South Australia in 2004.
Even so, the Greens will be sitting pretty. Those senators elected in 2004, stay for another three years 19 Coalition, 14 Labor, two Green and 1 Family First. If you add to them a likely result in 2007 of 12 Coalition, 16 to 18 Labor and four to six Greens, you get an overall result (adding the territories in) of 33 Coalition, 32 to 34 Labor, eight to 10 Greens and one Family First. Even throwing a few seats the other way and allowing for one or two unusual results, the overall likely outcome in the Senate will be the Greens holding the balance of power on their own. Crispin Hull is a Canberra writer.