Labor has increased its lead over the Liberal Party in the part week, according to the latest Canberra Times Datacol poll and is almost certain to take minority government with Democrat or Green support.
The Democrats are doing much better than previous elections, and their vote is holding up as the election approaches, unlike the experience of past elections. It now looks like the Democrats will take two or three seats, the first time they will get representation in the Legislative Assembly.
Many have put this down to “”the Natasha factor” – the heavy campaigning in the ACT by the Federal Democrat leader, Senator Natasha Stott-Despoja”.
The Democrats and Greens have also strengthened their position since the last poll, a week ago, some of it at the expense of independents Dave Rugendyke and Paul Osborne, both of whom are in trouble.
There are still 22 per cent undecided, down from 30 per cent a week ago. The Labor Party is picking up the lion’s share of that.
Labor is doing especially well in the Belconnen-based seat of Ginninderra, with 50 per cent of the vote once the undecided are distributed. The Liberals are on 23, Democrats 10, Greens 8 and Rugendyke on 5. Much will depend on how the preferences spilt, but it is possible Labor might get a third seat. More likely it would be Labor 2, Liberal 2 and a Democrat (or possible a Green depending on how the preferences fell. If Labor did get a third seat it would be at the expense of the Liberals.
In the seven-seat Molonglo electorate, Labor is on 43, Liberals on 34 and the Democrats and Greens each on 10 and no-one else on the radar. The most likely result would be Labor 3, Liberals 2, Green 1 and Democrats 1.
In Brindabella, Labor is on 40, the Liberals on 31, Democrats 10, Greens 7, Osborne 6 and Nurses 3. the most likely result would be Labor 2, Liberals 2, Democrats 1.
Overall that would give a likely Assembly of Labor 7, Liberals 6, Democrats 3, Greens 1.
Labor Leader Jon Stanhope said he was encouraged by the poll, but cautious. He would not assume that Labor would form government until all the votes were in. He was surprised at the strength of Labor’s vote.
Chief Minister Gary Humphries said, “”This confirms earlier poll that there will be a Labor Government supported by the Democrats or Greens or both. . . .You cannot ignore a poll like this.”
He said it highlighted the need for people to ask questions on the details of Labor policy and the make-up of a Labor Government, particularly one influenced by the Greens.
“”With the international and national events going on, the lack of focus on ACT has caused the Labor rise to come in under the radar and people may wake up on Sunday morning to a result they did not intend.”
Mr Humphries appealed to people not give Labor a carte blanche because their polices were so sketchy and their direction so unclear.
ABOUT THE POLL
All figures quotes are with the undecided distributed in proportion to the decided vote. October 11 -17. Sample size 815 (Molonglo 364, Ginninderra 235, Brindabella 219). Computer-assisted telephone interview. Respondents were told that there is an election for the ACT Legislative Assembly on October 20 and asked which party or candidate would get their first preference.