The party complexion of four seats still remains doubtful after counting in Saturday’s ACT election.
In Molonglo, Labor has three, the Liberals two and the Greens one. The remaining seat is a fight between the Democrats’ Jane Errey and the Liberals’ Helen Cross, with the Democrats’ favoured.
In Brindabella, Labor has two, the Liberals two and the last seat is a fight between the Democrats’ Jeanette Jolley and Labor’s Firstname (check) MacDonald, with the Democrats favoured.
In Ginninderra, Labor has two, the Liberals one and the reaming two are a fight between the Liberals, the Democrats, the Greens’ Shane Rattenbury and Labor’s Firstname (check) McCarthy, with the Liberals and Democrats favoured. If the Liberals get a second seat it will be a close tussle between Harold Hird, Vicki Dunne and Ilona Fraser. Mr Hird is ahead on the primary count but most likely one of the two women will get it because there has been a significant flow of preferences to women this election, according to scrutineers from all parties.
One other uncertainty is whether Labor’s third seat in Molonglo goes to Christina Ryan or Katy Gallagher. A handful of preferences from other excluded Labor candidates will determine it.
Electronic voting was expected to give a quick result on Saturday night, but it was slow coming. Electronic voting was also expected to give a good indication of preference flows and the determining of the last seats. By the close of counting a comparison of the electronic vote first preferences with the paper vote first preferences revealed that the voting patterns were significantly different. Electronic voters gave more votes to the Democrats and Greens than paper voters.
Once again, it is likely that the five-seat electorates will not give proper reward to winning major party. It is still likely that both major parties will get two seats each in each electorate, despite Labor trouncing the Liberals by more than 12 per cent in each electorate. The Liberals trounced Labor in those electorates in 1998 and the result was the same.
This election has seen greater success for women. There were two women in the previous Assembly. The next Assembly will have five, possibly six women members – irrespective of who wins the tussles mentioned above.
Losses from the previous Assembly are: Independent Michael Moore (retired); Independents Dave Rugendyke and Paul Osborne and former Liberal then Canberra Unity MLA Trevor Kaine; and most likely Liberals Greg Cornwell and Harold Hird.
New faces are: definitely the Liberals Steve Pratt and one of Labor’s Christina Ryan or Katy Gallagher; likely the Democrats’ Jane Errey, Jeanette Jolley and Roslyn Dundas; likely the Liberals’ Vicki Dunne or Ilona Fraser; and with an outside chance Labor’s Firstname MacDonald and Firstname McCarthy and the Liberals’ Helen Cross.