The deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Stephen Grenville, caused something of a stir late last week when he began to explain the causes of the current economic slowdown. He was at pains to point out that the Reserve Bank’s actions of 18 months ago to increase interest rates could not possibly have caused the downturn. He pointed out that interest rate changes, particularly those coming off a very low base, could not have had such a large effect. More controversially, he mentioned the GST in the same breath as the word slowdown.
Dr Grenville said that business confidence had been affected by a several sources of pressure on business costs and cash flow: the GST, exchange rates and oil. He said also that the transition to the GST had affected business confidence adversely on two counts: first, the general bureaucratic requirements and accounting changes and secondly the rescheduling of construction activity in the economy. Many individuals and businesses brought forward construction activity in late 1999 and early 2000 in the knowledge that the GST was pending. This meant a commensurate downturn in late 2000 and early 2001.
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