Month: August 1996

The suggestion by parliamentary secretary Tony Abbott to change the Senate voting system to favour the major parties must be taken very seriously indeed. The reason is not because his plan to make life difficult for minor parties has any merit. Rather because it shows, yet again, the willingness of politicians to engage in underhand tactics in the face of a fundamental flaw in Australia’s constitutional system … the excessive strength of the Senate.

It is a far more serious constitutional issue than the republic. That can be done by a few cosmetic changes and after the event everyone will wonder what the fuss was about. Changes to the role of the Senate, however, will generate enormous disagreement and require uncharacteristic goodwill from politicians from all quarters. Otherwise it will remain a running sore in Australian political affairs for the indefinite future … unless there are changes to the tight discipline and intractable conduct in the major parties that generates the friction in the first place.

And whether the Head of State is a Queen, Governor-General or President, he or she could easily be thrown in to an unseemly role a arbiter in any showdown of power between the Houses.
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The Foreign Minister, Alexander Downer, has been set a difficult task by his government on China. The difficulty was probably more accidental than deliberate (and therefore more culpable in diplomatic terms). Australia’s upgraded security arrangements with the US have been seen by China as making Australia the southern arm of a US-inspired pincer (with Japan the northern arm) by which the US hopes to contain China. It puts Australia in a containment role, rather than an engagement role. The proposed visit to Taiwan by the Deputy Leader of the National Party, Ian Armstrong, has also upset China, even though the visit has been described as unofficial. It has left Mr Downer chanting a one-China policy while acting a two-China policy.

Further the axing of the DIFF scheme which helps Australian companies in China and elsewhere has also upset China.

China is also upset that Tibet’s Dali Lama will be received in Australia at the highest government level.

Australia cannot conduct foreign policy on the level of not upsetting China, but nor can it expect to be listened in China on important questions of human rights if it is insensitive to Chinese views when it deals in matters of security and trade. Australia was right to welcome the Dali Lama, but Australia’s human-rights message to China is bound to be lost when it puts the selfish elements of foreign policy (security and trade) in such an anti-Chinese way. The Armstrong visit is probably unnecessary and if Australia is to upgrade US ties, it should have done more preliminary explanatory work in Asia, rather than be forced into bumbling explanations which could be seen as disingenuous later.

The Federal Government must soon deal with the other side of the Canberra equation. It has axed a huge number of public service jobs. Many will argue about what size of cut was appropriate, but it was apparent that the public sector had to be trimmed to balance the budget and to engender efficiency. The other side of the equation is to help replace those jobs with private-sector jobs. The Federal Government cannot wash its hands of Canberra and the region around it. It has not just inherited a lop-sided budget for Labor, but has inherited a range of decisions about Canberra that go back to the 1890s by governments of all persuasions, notable among them that of Sir Robert Menzies.

The social and economic health of this city and the region around it are a Federal Government responsibility and it cannot walk away from it. The theory behind the Government’s policies is that a smaller public sector and lower public spending within a balanced Budget will result in a more vibrant, job-providing private sector. The people of Canberra hope to see some evidence of that.

This week 27 Canberra and regional businesspeople, politicians and mayors met the Minister for Regional Development, John Sharp. It was a sign that the private sector is serious about at least laying the infra-structure for a stronger private sector in the region. Hitherto, too much private sector importance has been placed on tourism and construction. Tourism is important and has its place, but it is a volatile industry. It can wax and wane according to influences outside local control. The experience of Cairns is salient. It has been subjected to the ebb and flow of Japanese holiday tastes and an unpredicted airline strike, for example. The construction industry is also unreliable. The city cannot grow indefinitely. Besides construction of offices for a shrinking public service and construction of houses for a shrinking number of public servants and those who support them is a poor base for a strong private sector.
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Some anecdotal evidence is coming in that the abandonment of annual vehicle inspections at registration time in the ACT has resulted in more drivers neglecting to maintain their brakes properly. Some of it is coming from the brake industry itself, but that is no reason for immediately discounting it. Some is coming from the NRMA.

Annual inspections have been replaced by random street ones. The theory is that between annual inspections more people will be neglectful than if they might be subjected to a random street inspection any time. But faulty brakes or steering cannot be detected on the street, only cracked windscreens and bald tyres. The anecdotal evidence is that people are paying attention to windscreens and tyres at the expense of other more latent defects.

The aim of abandoning annual tests was to save money. But if it results in more crashes it will be counter-productive, even on the purely government ledger, let alone the human cost. Anecdotal evidence is not enough to justify reverting to the old system, but the Government must keep the matter under close watch and keep an open mind about restoring it.
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Slowly the reality is becoming clear. John Howard’s Government is putting as much of John Hewson’s Fightback program into effect as he can get away with. The only difference is that Dr Hewson was courageous, or stupid, enough to tell the electorate what he was going to do beforehand.

Mr Howard, on the other hand, told the electorate one thing and after the election is doing another. A promise of mild cuts to the public sector of 2500 have in reality being cuts of the Fightback recommendation of up to 20,000. Other Fightback recommendations announced or on the way are: a 10 per cent cut to the ABC, SBS and ATSIC; chopping Working Australia; chopping family reunion; cutting foreign aid; axing jobs programs; overhauling superannuation and so on. Medicare, too, is likely to face changes. Telstra and industrial relations reform are in a different category. He announced them very clearly before the election.

The justification for the harsher approach is that, after the election, the Government found what it said was a deeper fiscal hole than the former Government had acknowledged.

Even so, Mr Howard should tread more carefully. He has paid far too much attention to the fiscal black hole. Moreover, he runs the risk of be accused of inventing the black hole as an excuse to give vent to his ideological commitment to Fightback-style policies.
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The Government is being coy about any proposal to change superannuation arrangements … certainly more coy than before the election when it ruled out any major changes to superannuation. Now a leaked Cabinet submission suggests that major change is at least on the table, if not very likely.

The Government should tread very carefully in this area. It should not sacrifice long-term aims to build up savings and reduce reliance on social security for the sake of the short-term desire to deal with the Budget deficit.

Under present arrangements, employers and employees will steadily increase their contribution to 9 per cent and 3 per cent of salary respectively by 2002-03, and the Government would match the employee compulsory contribution. So that in seven years’ time all employees would be racking up superannuation at the rate of 15 per cent of income. Employees’ compulsory contributions are made after ordinary tax at the marginal rate is paid. Employer contributions are taxed at 15 per cent. Once the money is in a fund and starts earning interest, that interest income is taxed at 15 per cent.
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The Papua New Guinea Prime Minister, Sir Julius Chan, has condemned the Australian Foreign Minister, Alexander Downer, over Bougainville. He suggested that relations with Australia had soured since the change of government and that if Australia had any concerns about the use of Australian-provided helicopters in Bougainville, Papua New Guinea could get helicopters elsewhere.

The outburst may be explained by Sir Julius’s frustration at the dismal failure of his policy in Bougainville. When Sir Julius came to power, the world had hopes he might succeed in bringing peace. He cut through the earlier impasse by arranging a meeting with the Bougainville separatist leader, Francis Ona. Alas, nothing came of it, and Sir Julius went from the olive branch to force. He doubled the presence of PNG troops and imposed some tough conditions on the civilian population in order, he thought, to break the back of the Bougainville Revolutionary Army. That met with no success either.

Mr Downer has rightly questioned Sir Julius’s approach, and events on the ground show that the crisis can only be settled by peaceful means. Moreover, he was right to question PNG’s aggressive use of Australian-supplied Iroquois helicopters which resulted in six Bougainvillians being shot dead by fire from one of the helicopters. And it was proper to question the $20 million defence package if PNG could not live up to its terms. Sir Julius asserts that Australia is being neo-colonialist. Not so. Australia, as supplier of military aid has not only the right, but the responsibility to ensure that the conditions of the supply are adhered to, in particular that the helicopters will not be used in an aggressive way.
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John Howard’s request for privacy for his wife, Janette, must be respected, but, unfortunately, the request is likely to backfire, and therefore the request should be questioned.

In the past week, I have been party to half a dozen or more conversations about it, with people imagining that because I am a journalist, I will know something not in the public domain. That is often the case, but not on this occasion.

What troubles me, though, about these conversations is that after drawing a blank from me, the people actively engaged in speculation about Mrs Howard’s illness, some from their own medical experiences or that of others or on wild guesswork, based on the few slight bits of information available.

Those bits of information are: a major operation; the requirement for post-operative pathology tests, the results of which would not come through for a few days after the operation.
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At a glance

Family tax breaks. Families get $200 worth of tax breaks per child per year, means tested to cut out on incomes between $70,000 and $79,000 depending on the number of children. Single-income families with a child under five get a further $500 per year, cutting out at the breadwinner’s income of $74,000.

Medicare. People on more than $50,000 or families on more than $100,000 to pay an extra 1 per cent Medicare levy unless they take out private insurance. Rebates for people who take out private insurance: Up to $125 a year for singles earning under $35,000; Up to $250 for childless couples earning under $70,000. Up to $450 for families with children earning under $70,000 (or $3000 more than $70,000 for each child after the first).

AUSTUDY. Migrants to wait 2 years before qualifying, stricter means testing. Age of indepdence up from 22 to 25.

Super. Up to 15 per cent surcharge on super for people earning morethan $70,000 a year.
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There was an interesting contrast this week between the libel action in England brought by Ian Botham and Allan Lamb against Imran Khan, and evidence presented at the national conference on women in policing in Australia.

Policewoman Susan Bailey told of how her male colleagues had inflicted all sorts of verbal (and other indignities) on her and how she had been told by them to be tougher, to be more robust and take it without complaint.

That is a fairly common reaction to female complaints about verbal abuse in the workplace.

Compare that to the male reaction of the two English cricketers and the institutional support for them to get their case heard. Botham and Lamb complained that Imran Khan had accused them of cheating through ball tampering, being racist and being lower class. Oh, diddums.

Were they expected to be tougher, more robust and take it without complaint?

Oh, no. Off they went to the High Court. In the end they lost. Imran said he had been misreported by the Indian newspaper and English tabloid upon which Botham and Lamb based their case. But the seriousness with which the British legal system took the case was laughable. The case ran to $1 million in legal costs and three weeks of sitting in England’s highest court at first instance. And it is no different with these sorts of cases in Australia. If anything we are worse. We gave an even more resource-draining hearing to an allegation that a footballer was the sort of person who would allow himself to be photographed with part of his penis showing. Really.
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