Crispin Hull

There was another big winner on Saturday night other than Kate Carnell _ and that was the opinion pollster Datacol which produced the The Canberra Times polls during the campaign. Last Thursday Datacol had the Liberals ahead of Labor overall and ahead is each of the three seats, which proved correct, despite some widespread scepticism. Datacol was hamstrung by the large number of undecided vote in the week before the election. That undecided vote was peculiar to the ACT election because a concurrent poll using the same respondents on the upcoming Federal by-election in the seat of Canberra had 10 percentage points (SUBS: correct 10 per centage points NOT 10 per cent) fewer undecided. Datacol still correctly picked the Liberals pipping Labor and rising and the Greens coming from nowhere last election to being in third place. Datacol correctly picked Paul Osborne ahead of the Greens, Democrats and Moore Independents in Brindabella; Moore being behind the Greens and ahead of the Democrats in Molonglo and eventhe 1 per cent vote for the Smokers Are Voters group. The trouble was that last week no-one believed the Liberals were ahead and there was some widespread private scepticism of the poll result.

Datacol principal Malcolm Mearnes was pleased his polling was borne out, but was not surprised. Datacol, like most pollsters, also asks demographic questions like age group, sex, employment. These details are known through Bureau of Statistics figures. The poll sample has to reasonably match the known demographic data if the poll is to be relied upon for the political data.

The first preference count for Saturday’s election was completed yesterday, except for a handful of postal votes, and the final result is expected next week, the Act Electoral Commission announced yesterday. Commissioner Phil Green said Molonglo preferences would be distributed today (SAT). Some distribution of preferences would be done in and Ginninderra and Brindabella tomorrow (SUN). “”A declaration of the poll is expected sometime next week,” he said.

General opinion suggests the most likely result is: Liberal 7, Labor 6, Green 2, Moore 1 and Osborne 1. On that result Kate Carnell is likely to be Chief Minister with Paul Osborne’s and Michael Moore’s support. However, Mr Osborne is fighting the Greens Andrew Parratt in Brindabella for the last seat and it may come down to a few hundred votes. If Mr Parratt wins a Labor Government supported in one form or another by the Greens is possible. There is also a remote possibility that Moore Independent Helen Szuty could beat the Green for the last seat in Ginninderra. There is virtually no chance of the Liberals winning a third seat in Brindabella or Ginninderra. Counting of first preferences in the past few chances has not changed that overall position. The referendum has been passed with 65 per cent of the formal vote voting Yes, comprising about 55 per cent of those on the roll.

The Liberal Party has moved to be neck and neck with Labor in the latest Canberra-Times Datacol poll on Saturday’s election, picking up women voters who previously had been undecided. The poll puts the Liberals on 26 and Labor on 24, however, there is still a very large slice of undecided voters, 32 per cent, and in the last election Labor picked up a disproportionate lion’s share of these voters. Slightly more voters, 38 per cent, would prefer Kate Carnell as Chief Minister than Rosemary Follett, on 36 per cent and slightly more approve of the way Mrs Carnell is doing her job than the way Rosemary Follett is doing hers. On this poll, the most likely result is still a minority Government, presumably Labor, supported by Moore Independents and Greens. Though the Greens have said that if they hold the balance they will bargain with both sides to extract concessions to fit their platform (see report page X).

The poll was conducted from last Thursday until Tuesday. The previous poll was conducted the week before that. In that time, campaigning has stepped up. The poll shows that during the week Labor dropped 2 per cent and the Liberals rose 4 per cent. Undecided is at 32 per cent, down four from the previous poll. The Chief Minister, Rosemary Follett, said, “”There is only one real poll; it’s on Saturday.” The Moore Independents, Democrats and the Greens are up a percentage point each, but none has a quota. None the less it is likely a non-major party candidate will pick up a seat in each electorate. Moore Independent Helen Szuty, on 6, is leading the minors in Ginninderra, independent Paul Osborne, on 6, in Brindabella and the Greens, on 9, in Molonglo.
Continue reading “1995_02_february_poll15”

The ACT is headed for another minority government, according to the latest Canberra Times-Datacol poll. The main points to come from the poll are as follows: A surge in support for the Greens who could get the balance of power. Minority government is almost inevitable. Labor is slightly ahead of the Liberals. There is enough support for minor parties and independents to secure three or four seats. The re-entry of the Democrats from nowhere to being a minor force. Rosemary Follett is slightly preferred as Chief Minister over Kate Carnell. There is a huge undecided vote _ much higher than at the same time last election. The possibility that Raiders star Paul Osborne will get a seat in Brindabella. Sitting MLAs Greg Cornwell (Liberal) and Ellnor Grassby (Labor) are at very high risk and sitting Independents MLAs Michael Moore and Helen Szuty are at moderate risk. However, the very high undecided vote makes all of these conclusions subject to change. A further complicating factor is that more than half those polled say they will cross-vote _ that is, not restrict their first five (or seven in Molonglo) preferences to one party. This is perhaps comforting for sitting members because it indicates voting for personalities rather than parties and this usually favours sitting candidates.

Under the Hare-Clark voting system, five candidates elected in each of Tuggeranong-based Brindabella and Belconnen-based Ginninderra. In these electorates 16.6 per cent of the first-preference vote is a quota to guarantee a seat. Central-based Molonglo has and seven seats and quota of 12.5 per cent. Tasmanian and Senate experience suggests that the last seat in each electorate is often secured by a candidate with more than half a quota of first preference votes. The poll shows that 39 per cent prefer Ms Follett as Chief Minister and 36 per cent prefer Ms Carnell. Carnell support increases with over 55, private sector and males. Follett support increases with 35-54, public sector and females. The 18-34s give equal support. On voting intentions Labor (26 per cent) is ahead of the Liberal Party (22 per cent). They are followed by the Greens (5 per cent), Moore Independents (4); Democrats (3); others 3.
Continue reading “1995_02_february_poll09”

Planning has caused great angst in Canberra since self-government. There have been numerous changes to processes, a great number of inquiries and a great deal of threatened change. In short, it has been all tunnel and no light. Both major parties have tried to please all and pleased none. The Liberals want to get rid of the leasehold system as far as the Constitution will permit. Labor has spent three years unravelling the mess created by the first Territory Plan and the 50-50 policy (which it has now abandoned) and has pinned its hope on local-area planning. Residents will not express any great confidence in that until they see it in action.

The Greens have said higher-density occupation along public transport routes is essential. They want urban villages in Canberra and want “”to produce a new city form” based on greater density and reliance on public transport, especially light rail. It is an ideological stand, contracting with the major parties and the Moore Independents who have pragmatic stands, if differing ones. Oddly, developers, who ordinarily might see the Greens as an anathema, might like helping produce the new city form, though the Greens say they will have greater government and community involvement in the redevelopment program. The Moore Independents are committed to retaining existing Canberra, especially the heritage areas, through the leasehold system and 100 per cent betterment taxes for changes in land use. They see only a limited role for in-fill. For the major parties, the common ground is that both parties have seen the electoral downside of rampant dual occupancies and both have agreed with at least the Landsdown recommendations or stricter rules to make dual occupancy more palatable.
Continue reading “1995_02_february_planning”

The deal done to allow petrol discounter Burmah into the Canberra market has cost Canberrans about $6 million, according to ANU economics researcher Sandra Navall. Ms Navall competed an honours thesis on petrol pricing last year. She argues, “”The full costs of enticing Burmah into the Canberra market have been effectively hidden. The immediate savings to motorists are not enough to offset the fall in revenue to the ACT Treasury and the losses to existing service station operators.” Burmah’s entry into the Canberra market 15 months ago has caused on-going controversy.

The Minister for Consumer Affairs, Terry Connolly, has defended the move saying it has brought cheaper petrol and something had to be done to break the stranglehold of the major oil companies. The Motor Trades Association of Australia has argued that the deal with Burmah was unfair because it got a prime site on a trunk route for virtually nothing and resulted in major losses to existing service stations. The MTAA says it was a political stunt which hid underlying costs which would have to be borne by Canberrans generally. Ms Navall calculates that the Government’s gift to Burmah was roughly a 5 cents a litre advantage over other retailers of which Burmah has passed on only 2 cents a litre to motorists. In fortuitous timing the price of crude dropped making the cut look bigger than it was. MTAA has asserted that Burmah is part of Shell in any event. It says that the cut in bowser price did not affect a large part of the market which was on other discount arrangements. Ms Navall said the ACT Treasury would lose land tax and rates revenue from existing retail petrol sites, because the values of the sites had fallen.
Continue reading “1995_02_february_petrol”

Former Health and Sports Minister Wayne Berry remains the least well-thought-of key MLA, despite being out of the hot seat for 10 months, according to the latest Canberra Times-Datacol poll. The man who took over the health hot seat, Terry Connolly, appears not to have suffered from it. He remains third behind Kate Carnell and Rosemary Follett among a list of nine key ACT politicians. The poll shows that health is the issue of highest concern in the election campaign.

The poll showed that 37 per cent are very dissatisfied and 34 dissatisfied with the ACT Government’s performance on health. Only nine are satisfied and three very satisfied with 18 citing a middle-level performance.

The good news for Mr Berry is that while is overall dissatisfaction level remains at 60 per cent since last Spetember’s poll, about five per cent have moved from regarding his performance as very bad to regarding his performance as just bad. Only 6 per cent thought his performance good and 1 per cent very good. Mr Berry heads Labor’s how-to-vote ticket in Ginninderra.
Continue reading “1995_02_february_oppoll”

Today is election Number 3 under self-government and the people of the ACT are still behaving like those a grown-up children who want keep wanting to return to the luxury and comfort of their parents’ house. The house where Mum does the washing and puts delicious meals on the table, Dad provides the car keys, a comfortable roof is put over the head and there are no mortgages, petrol costs, no rent and no food costs. Sometimes there is a little tiff between parent and child, but life is easy and comfortable. There were some late teenage rumblings about leaving home which were put to the test on November 27, 1978, in the form of a referendum on self-government.

In those halcyon days the National Capital Development Commission with lashing of Federal money ran the city. The streets were clean, the hospitals and police were the best in Australia. So why change? Accordingly, 63.5 voted against full self-government; 31.1 for it; 5.4 for local government; and 1.6 voted informal. We wanted to stay with Mum and Dad. But by the mid-1980s Mum and Dad, in the form of Federal politicians, were sick of these pampered ACT children and sick of paying for their lavish upkeep. It was time for the children of the ACT to leave home and support themselves _ whether they liked it or not. And so in 1989 the children of the ACT were forced to go it alone. Moreover, they were given the power to decide how much of their income they would spend on petrol, health care and the rent. Still they hanker unrealistically after Mum and Dad’s house.
Continue reading “1995_02_february_oped17”

Idle speculation was rife in ACT politics yesterday while the work was being done by Electoral Commission staff and the scrutineers. They were speaking of seats, Ministries, deals and the Speakership. If the result is the likely one: Liberal 7, Labor 6, Greens 2, Moore 1 and Osborne 1, everything will turn on Michael Moore. Paul Osborne has said he will vote as Chief Minister the leader of the party with the most votes, which means Kate Carnell. That would give the Liberals 8. Labor can deal as much as it likes with the Greens, and still capture an equal 8. So Moore would decide. In the past six years he has supported Labor. Now it is different. Before the 1992 election he said he would support Rosemary Follett. This time he said he would decide after the election. This time he has put up with an anti-Moore campaign by Labor.

Labor’s Wayne Berry constantly tried to associate him with Abolish Self-Government MLA Dennis Stevenson. On election day Labor people handed out “”independent” how-to-vote cards in a way that confused potential Moore voters. Labor condemned him over cannabis and euthanasia. Mrs Carnell has been more sympathetic to these and Mr Moore’s agenda on open and accountable government. Of greater importance was the fact that some Liberals in Molonglo did an informal “”support Moore” campaign for Liberal preferences in the hope of defeating the Greens.
Continue reading “1995_02_february_moore21”

Many ACT voters are unlikely to get a full say in how the territory is to be governed in the next three years _ especially strong Labor and strong Liberal voters. They will follow the instruction in large type on the ballot paper which says: “”Number five boxes from 1 to 5 in the order of your choice”. In smaller type it says “”Then you may show as many further preferences as you wish . . . ”. Experience shows that the vast majority of voters take the line of least resistance. In Senate elections, for example, about 80 per cent tick the party box and go home. In the ACT, a majority of voters are, unfortunately, likely to number the minimum five boxes. This is likely to be especially true of major-party voters. (For Molonglo read seven where I have written five.) Many voters mistakenly feel that preferences are only important if you vote for a minor party. We hear much of preferences from the Democrats and Greens in Federal elections, for example. How they flow is critical to whether Labor or Liberal win the election. Under the Hare-Clark system, however, the reverse is true. Preferences from the major parties to the minor parties are of greater importance than the other way.

On Saturday, those preferences will determine the three critical seats on the cross-benches. At present the polls show that that contest for the last seat in each electorate is between the Michael Moore Independents, the Greens, the Democrats and Independent Paul Osborne. None is rating a full quota in any electorate at present, so it is is likely is that preferences from Labor and the Liberals will determine which of these minors and independents gets the last seat in each electorate. In the Assembly, the cross bench is vital for the shape of legislation, the make-up of committees, the answerability of Ministers and the bureaucracy and so on. In those circumstances, the calibre and attitudes of the people is of great importance.
Continue reading “1995_02_february_minors”