Crispin Hull

The referendum to entrench the Hare-Clark voting system got a solid 65 per cent majority by ACT voters yesterday.

The vote went within a whisker of the 50 per cent of the enrolled vote needed by the end of counting last night and only needs a tiny fraction of the remaining uncounted vote to pass that necessary hurdle. It means that the voting system cannot be changed without a two-thirds majority of the House of Assembly or a further referendum. In effect it means that the two major parties must agree to significant changes to the system. The referendum also entrenches compulsory voting.
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The referendum to entrench the Hare-Clark formally passed early yesterday morning when some additional postal votes put the Yes vote over the necessary 50 per cent of enrolled voters. The Yes vote got a solid 65 per cent majority of the formal vote, but under the Federal ACT Self-Government Act it must get 50 per cent of the enrolled voters. In effect, informals and no-shows are deemed to be No votes. Usually this means between 58 and 60 per cent must vote Yes for a referendum to pass.

There are 195,389 on the roll, and the 97,695th Yes vote was counted early yesterday morning. It means that the voting system cannot be changed without a two-thirds majority of the House of Assembly or a further referendum. In effect it means that the two major parties must agree to significant changes to the system. The referendum also entrenches compulsory voting. The key parts of the system that are entrenched are: Minimum of five members per electorate; Robson rotation; no party voting or above-the line voting; an odd number of seats per electorate; and optional preferential voting. It is the first time that Hare-Clark or compulsory voting have been entrenched in Australia.

Fundamental is the development of a network of sustainable bioregional economies. These must be sustainable in terms of the bioregional and the global ecological systems. If the parts are sustainable, so is the whole.

Public health has come a long way since the 14th century when it consisted almost solely of painting a cross on the door of houses where the plague had struck. Indeed, Monty Python’s wheelbarrow-pusher crying out “”Bring out your dead” grossly over-stated the extent of public health those days. People had to deal with their own. Since then, we have fixed the sewers and water supply and immunised kids against the major killers so public health is a lesser issue, and the health debate can concentrate on hospitals and hi-tech gadgetry and how much of it should be paid by Medicare and private health. Or maybe not.

The past fortnight has seen a confluence of events that illustrates public health’s re-emergence. Some more serious cases from poisoned mettwurst were reported; we had warnings about the worse of two versions of HIV taking over and we heard some Canberra residents going public over arsenic poison on their property. The three are good illustrations of the main new sources of public-health concern: long food-processing and food-delivery chains; increased resistance of bacteria and viruses to anti-biotics; and more poisonous chemicals in the environment. Humans being humans, all three carry a certain amount of emotion and even hysteria. And the emotion and hysteria is never qualified by the extent of the risk. Mention asbestos, arsenic, legionella or the death of a child from food poisoning and the over-reaction is astounding. This leaves the public-health official in a bind. What should the public be told about particular risks? How do you balance the avoidance of individual medical harm with the social damage done by the hysteria and irrational action that can follow general disclosure? Some of these questions are being considered at a conference in Melbourne next week. (For details ring the Australasian Faculty of Public Health Medicine Sydney 02 2565404) The arsenic and mettwurst cases are good examples. Arsenic at levels greater than the public-health action levels which was left over from old sheep dips has been found on several residential blocks at Theodore.
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The ACT will wait a week before the ACT Electoral Commissioner is permitted to start counting preferences. Under the Hare-Clark system the direction of preferences is very hard to predict. There are several complicating factors. Many people only vote for major party candidates and do not express preferences beyond that. Their ballot papers are excluded. Many people cross-vote. This means they give one or two preferences with on party and then swap to others. It is likely, given the high personal popularity of Kate Carnell, for example, that she might have got a lot of first preferences from voters who direct their second preferences elsewhere _ even to Labor.

Further, under the system preferences get counted in several different ways. The preferences from candidates who have reached a quota are transferred at a discount. The preferences of excluded candidates are transferred at face value. And some preferences are transferred through while other ballot papers sit with the elected candidate. Small wonder last night that few people were willing to be too definite. That said, here is a likely possibility. Brindabella: Liberals definite two (the quotas are there on first preferences). They will got to the sitting members Tony De Domenico and Trevor Kaine. Labor will also get two (1.9 quotas means they only need a little shrapnel from elsewhere to get the second over the line.) It is likely that Whitecross’s preferences are probably not enough to save the number 2 on the Labor ticket over the high personal vote of Bill Wood (who was demoted to number 3). Wood has shown the advantages of the Hare-Clark system in that an individual can beat the party ticket. The last seat is likely to go to Osborne on 0.67 of a quota. This is because the Liberals have 2.23 quotas and Osborne could expect to pick up much of the over-quota as the Liberals directed preferences his way. The Greens, Democrats and Moore independents have in total 0.9 of a quota between them. It would need a very tight flow of preferences for the Greens Andrew Parratt to get over the line, but it is not out of the question.
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Health and economic management are the issues of most concern to voters in Saturday’s ACT election, according to the latest Canberra Times-Datacol opinion poll. The poll shows the Government scoring well on the environment, causing Environment Minister Bill Wood to say, “”There’s no need for the so-called Greens in this election. . . . Labor is the genuine green party.” The poll sows 40 per cent of voters are very dissatisfied with the way the government is performing in health, 28 per cent are dissatisfied _ a total of 68 per cent. Only 11 per cent are satisfied or very satisfied.

Yesterday The Canberra Times published details of voting intentions in the poll which put showed an increase in the Liberal vote with the two major parties neck and neck. The dissatisfaction over health comes amid a dispute over contracts for visiting medical officers’ contracts. The Government says they are being paid about 14 per cent over the Australian average and several million dollars could be saved if they came down to that average. This could be achieved by sessional payments, which the doctors reject. The Opposition says there are far worse blow-outs in health spending which have not been attacked _ the ACT spends more that 85 per cent over the national average on overheads and more than 45 per cent more on administration. It wants to make savings and channel a greater proportion of the budget in medical services to cut waiting lists. On economic management 51 per cent are very dissatisfied or dissatisfied. Only 14 per cent are satisfied or very satisfied. Opposition Leader Kate Carnell said the poll confirmed the Liberals’ campaign which was focused on health and economic management because the Liberals had seen those as the main issues of community concern.
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There was another big winner on Saturday night other than Kate Carnell _ and that was the opinion pollster Datacol which produced the The Canberra Times polls during the campaign. Last Thursday Datacol had the Liberals ahead of Labor overall and ahead is each of the three seats, which proved correct, despite some widespread scepticism. Datacol was hamstrung by the large number of undecided vote in the week before the election. That undecided vote was peculiar to the ACT election because a concurrent poll using the same respondents on the upcoming Federal by-election in the seat of Canberra had 10 percentage points (SUBS: correct 10 per centage points NOT 10 per cent) fewer undecided. Datacol still correctly picked the Liberals pipping Labor and rising and the Greens coming from nowhere last election to being in third place. Datacol correctly picked Paul Osborne ahead of the Greens, Democrats and Moore Independents in Brindabella; Moore being behind the Greens and ahead of the Democrats in Molonglo and eventhe 1 per cent vote for the Smokers Are Voters group. The trouble was that last week no-one believed the Liberals were ahead and there was some widespread private scepticism of the poll result.

Datacol principal Malcolm Mearnes was pleased his polling was borne out, but was not surprised. Datacol, like most pollsters, also asks demographic questions like age group, sex, employment. These details are known through Bureau of Statistics figures. The poll sample has to reasonably match the known demographic data if the poll is to be relied upon for the political data.

The first preference count for Saturday’s election was completed yesterday, except for a handful of postal votes, and the final result is expected next week, the Act Electoral Commission announced yesterday. Commissioner Phil Green said Molonglo preferences would be distributed today (SAT). Some distribution of preferences would be done in and Ginninderra and Brindabella tomorrow (SUN). “”A declaration of the poll is expected sometime next week,” he said.

General opinion suggests the most likely result is: Liberal 7, Labor 6, Green 2, Moore 1 and Osborne 1. On that result Kate Carnell is likely to be Chief Minister with Paul Osborne’s and Michael Moore’s support. However, Mr Osborne is fighting the Greens Andrew Parratt in Brindabella for the last seat and it may come down to a few hundred votes. If Mr Parratt wins a Labor Government supported in one form or another by the Greens is possible. There is also a remote possibility that Moore Independent Helen Szuty could beat the Green for the last seat in Ginninderra. There is virtually no chance of the Liberals winning a third seat in Brindabella or Ginninderra. Counting of first preferences in the past few chances has not changed that overall position. The referendum has been passed with 65 per cent of the formal vote voting Yes, comprising about 55 per cent of those on the roll.

The Liberal Party has moved to be neck and neck with Labor in the latest Canberra-Times Datacol poll on Saturday’s election, picking up women voters who previously had been undecided. The poll puts the Liberals on 26 and Labor on 24, however, there is still a very large slice of undecided voters, 32 per cent, and in the last election Labor picked up a disproportionate lion’s share of these voters. Slightly more voters, 38 per cent, would prefer Kate Carnell as Chief Minister than Rosemary Follett, on 36 per cent and slightly more approve of the way Mrs Carnell is doing her job than the way Rosemary Follett is doing hers. On this poll, the most likely result is still a minority Government, presumably Labor, supported by Moore Independents and Greens. Though the Greens have said that if they hold the balance they will bargain with both sides to extract concessions to fit their platform (see report page X).

The poll was conducted from last Thursday until Tuesday. The previous poll was conducted the week before that. In that time, campaigning has stepped up. The poll shows that during the week Labor dropped 2 per cent and the Liberals rose 4 per cent. Undecided is at 32 per cent, down four from the previous poll. The Chief Minister, Rosemary Follett, said, “”There is only one real poll; it’s on Saturday.” The Moore Independents, Democrats and the Greens are up a percentage point each, but none has a quota. None the less it is likely a non-major party candidate will pick up a seat in each electorate. Moore Independent Helen Szuty, on 6, is leading the minors in Ginninderra, independent Paul Osborne, on 6, in Brindabella and the Greens, on 9, in Molonglo.
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The ACT is headed for another minority government, according to the latest Canberra Times-Datacol poll. The main points to come from the poll are as follows: A surge in support for the Greens who could get the balance of power. Minority government is almost inevitable. Labor is slightly ahead of the Liberals. There is enough support for minor parties and independents to secure three or four seats. The re-entry of the Democrats from nowhere to being a minor force. Rosemary Follett is slightly preferred as Chief Minister over Kate Carnell. There is a huge undecided vote _ much higher than at the same time last election. The possibility that Raiders star Paul Osborne will get a seat in Brindabella. Sitting MLAs Greg Cornwell (Liberal) and Ellnor Grassby (Labor) are at very high risk and sitting Independents MLAs Michael Moore and Helen Szuty are at moderate risk. However, the very high undecided vote makes all of these conclusions subject to change. A further complicating factor is that more than half those polled say they will cross-vote _ that is, not restrict their first five (or seven in Molonglo) preferences to one party. This is perhaps comforting for sitting members because it indicates voting for personalities rather than parties and this usually favours sitting candidates.

Under the Hare-Clark voting system, five candidates elected in each of Tuggeranong-based Brindabella and Belconnen-based Ginninderra. In these electorates 16.6 per cent of the first-preference vote is a quota to guarantee a seat. Central-based Molonglo has and seven seats and quota of 12.5 per cent. Tasmanian and Senate experience suggests that the last seat in each electorate is often secured by a candidate with more than half a quota of first preference votes. The poll shows that 39 per cent prefer Ms Follett as Chief Minister and 36 per cent prefer Ms Carnell. Carnell support increases with over 55, private sector and males. Follett support increases with 35-54, public sector and females. The 18-34s give equal support. On voting intentions Labor (26 per cent) is ahead of the Liberal Party (22 per cent). They are followed by the Greens (5 per cent), Moore Independents (4); Democrats (3); others 3.
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