The Nationals are likely doomed if they don’t go back into a coalition. And they are likely doomed if they do.
Last week I wrote in this space: “The job for [Prime Minister Anthony] Albanese now is to concern himself less with the Coalition (which is doing a good self-demolition job all on its own) and concentrate on reversing the One Nation surge.”
Within 48 hours the Coalition had completed that demolition job – far sooner than I thought possible. And still One Nation surges in the polls.
But the Nationals should be more worried than Labor.
The numbers spell profound changes in Australian politics. In the polls since the Bondi shootings last month, One Nation has gone from 6 or 7 per cent to being close to or equal to the vote of what was once the Coalition – each sitting in the low 20s.
We should ask why. It starts with many voters feeling the Government is not working for them – because in many cases it isn’t. They feel resentful.
One Nation exploits that resentment, not by addressing real issues, but in three other ways: a human fear of difference in language, ethnicity, or religion; a sense that others are exploiting them (multinationals, big mining, big supermarket chains); and a sense that elites are unjustifiably looking down on them, belittling them, and taking away their dignity.
One Nation then presents these voters (especially in rural and regional Australia) with simplistic, blame-shifting solutions so they can nostalgically look at a return to when times were good.
One Nation calls for non-white immigration to be slashed; for an end to net-zero; toughness on crime; free-speech (freedom of bigotry); an end to multi-culturalism; and an end to government waste. All the policies cite idyllic results with no detail as to how to get there.
So, there is no hedging and no recognition of complexity. So, despite the convoluted, inarticulate, non-sequitur-laden speech of One Nation leaders, these policies emerge with astounding clarity.
In this environment, the Nationals’ position is precarious.
If the Liberal-Nationals split continues, the single Liberal-National Party in Queensland might have to split both organisationally and among their Members of Parliament.
The prospect of three-cornered contests looms, with Liberals pitted against Nationals. Yes, they will swap preferences, but there are always leaks of preferences. And One Nation will be there to pick them up, along with the votes of people disgusted with the infighting within and between the Liberals and the Nationals.
The polling nationwide, is putting One Nation between 18 and 22 per cent. But it is not uniform. One Nation will be far higher in rural areas, especially in Queensland.
It means One Nation will be pushing the Liberals and Nationals into third spot and winning on their preferences. The usual two-party-preferred vote split that we see in polls will become less relevant.
Last election, in 35 of the 150 seats the contest was not Labor v Coalition. If One Nation’s surge holds that could more than double.
Perhaps the best guide to this is the Queensland state election of 1998. Labor got 39 per cent; the Coalition 32; One Nation 23; and the rest 6.
One Nation won 11 of the 89 seats – six from the Nationals and five from Labor. But Labor gained five seats from the Liberals and formed a minority government with two conservative independents who could not support a Liberal-National-One Nation coalition.
In the end, the Nationals had a lucky escape because all 11 One Nation MPs had quit the party before the following election.
In a Federal election, the 14 MPs who sit in the Nationals partyroom are extremely vulnerable to One Nation because they are in rural seats where One Nation support is highest. In a hung Parliament, it is extremely unlikely that any independents would support a minority government relying on One Nation MPs.
But Labor should not be too complacent – because of the Senate. In 2028, Senators elected in 2022 come up for election. In 2022, One Nation got just one seat – that of Pauline Hanson in Queensland. Latest polling suggests that One Nation will easily get five in 2028 – their task made easier if the Liberals and Nationals run separate Senate tickets.
The quota for one of the six seats in each state is just 14.3 per cent of the vote. On current polling, minor parties would get two seats in each state (one of them One Nation in all states bar Tasmania. Or possibly three seats with One Nation getting two of them.
Also, three of the Nationals’ four senators come up for election. The re-election of all of them is unlikely. These four Nationals, by the way, were the ones who precipitated the Coalition crisis by crossing the floor on the hate-speech legislation, against Coalition policy.
After the next election getting legislation through the Senate will become a nightmare, whoever attains government. And solutions will be much harder to achieve. Best to avoid it.
Even going back into coalition might be too late for the Nationals. If they go back, it would only be after forcing the Liberals to topple Sussan Ley as leader and forcing the Liberals further towards One Nation’s policies. Doing that would justifiably result in a voter backlash, especially by women, perhaps causing the rise of female “Voices Of” independents, such as Helen Haines and before her Cathy McGowan in the rural seat of Indi.
In orchestrating the walkout from the Coalition, Nationals leader David Littleproud might have unleashed the beginning of the end for his party.
That would leave the Labor and Liberal Parties to deal with One Nation.
The potential One Nation voters are justified in their feelings of nostalgia and are justified in feeling exploited. But that will not be rectified by One Nation because One Nation’s solutions miss the real causes.
It is not multi-culturalism or the racial make-up of the immigration intake that matters. It is the absolute number. Forty years ago, immigration was ramped up from a sensible, sustainable 70,000 a year to more than 250,000 to provide cheap labour and undermine unions.
The result was strains on infrastructure and the housing market.
Forty years ago, housing was attainable; tertiary education was free without student debt; public primary and secondary education were of a higher standard; healthcare and aged care were free or at least affordable and of high quality; the tax system was fairer; and immigration was not rorted with education and work visas becoming the path to residency.
The ravages of privatisation and deregulation had not emerged. Small wonder people feel nostalgic.
Fixing these things would undermine One Nation much more effectively than copying One Nation’s approach or going even further to the simplistic right.
Crispin Hull
This article first appeared in The Canberra Times and other Australian media on 27 January 2026.