The British Government’s call for elections in Northern Ireland is both premature and dangerous. Britain argues that an election is an alternative path to peace given the refusal by the IRA and the para-military loyalist groups to disarm. On the other hand the Irish nationalist side argues that an election and the reconstitution of any form of home rule would result in the return to the old domination of the Catholic minority by the Protestant majority.
History supports the view of the latter. Even if the role of the new body were limited to discussions on a new political settlement in Northern Ireland, the domination argument still holds. At present, the “”sides” in the constitutional and peace process are the British and Irish Governments and the groups representing the Catholic and Protestant side in Northern Ireland. Elections would not change the parties, but it would change their weight. Protestants would get a majority in an election, and would therefore take to themselves a mantle of legitimacy suggesting their voice was worth more. Everyone agrees on who should be around the table; there is no need for an election. All an election can do is engender mistrust and inflame differences.
The best thing for the people in Northern Ireland at present if for no-one to make any sudden moves. Lots of talk, lots of shuffling about and lots of waffle for quite long time will give Northern Ireland the best chance for peace. The longer the truce goes on, the more people in Northern Ireland will value peace and learn to understand each other. It will also allow for the gradual dissolution of the war industry that had built up in the 25 years to 1994.
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